FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 12 Sunday Night (Browns at Ravens)
We've got a crucial AFC North clash on Sunday night as the Baltimore Ravens host the Cleveland Browns.
On NFL odds, the Ravens are 3.5-point home favorites over the Browns in a game with a 47.0-point total. That makes the implied score 25.25-21.75.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
As is usually the case with Lamar Jackson ($17,500 on FanDuel) on single-game slates, he's clearly the top MVP option.
Jackson is averaging 71 rushing yards per game, which boosts both his floor and ceiling in DFS. Even in a blah outing against the Miami Dolphins in his last appearance, Jackson still scored 16.42 FanDuel points thanks to the aid of 39 rushing yards. He's run for fewer than 51 yards just twice all season.
We project Jackson for 23.8 FanDuel points, which is 8.6 more than anyone else. If you want to use someone else at MVP for game-theory reasons, I get it, but swallowing the Jackson chalk at MVP and being different elsewhere may be the way to go Sunday night.
Baker Mayfield ($14,000) is the only other player we have projected for more than 13.0 FanDuel points.
I'm always interested in quarterbacks who are unlikely to be popular MVP options. While it's admittedly hard to get jazzed up about using Mayfield, the matchup isn't too bad as the Ravens have surrendered the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to signal-callers (19.5) and rank seventh-worst versus the pass by our numbers. The Browns would likely prefer to lean on their ground game, but they may have to air it out if they see a negative game script. I'm at least intrigued by Mayfield as a contrarian MVP play.
Jackson's top two targets -- Marquise Brown ($12,500) and Mark Andrews ($12,000) -- are worth considering for the MVP spot. I prefer Hollywood between the two.
Brown is somewhat quietly having a really dope season, amassing 79.9 receiving yards per game, which is way up from the 48.1 he posted a season ago. Brown and Andrews have both accounted for 23% of the targets, but Brown owns a 33% air yards share, compared to Andrews' 23% clip. Hollywood's big-play chops make him a fun weird-but-not-super-weird MVP play. We have him projected for 12.6 FanDuel points, the most among non-quarterbacks.
I didn't mention Nick Chubb ($13,000) as an MVP option, and I don't really like him that much as a flex play, either. That's mostly due to the return of Kareem Hunt ($11,000).
Chubb and Hunt have been active together five times this season. In those five games, Chubb has never played more than 57% of the snaps or seen more than two targets. For Chubb to hit for a big game, he has to rack up rushing yards and find the end zone. It's certainly possible that he does both of those things in this matchup, but I don't want to roll the dice on it at Chubb's $13,000 salary.
I'm not all that into Hunt, either. But if you're telling yourself a story that Baltimore controls the game, Hunt makes sense as a bring-back piece who will be active in the passing game. He has at least three targets in four of his six games.
Jarvis Landry ($10,000) and Austin Hooper ($7,500) are my preferred ways to get exposure to Cleveland.
In the past two games sans Odell Beckham, Landry has recorded a 22% target share and 19% air yards share. As I mentioned above, the Ravens' pass defense checks in seventh-worst by our metrics, and Landry is a sensible stacking partner with Mayfield.
As for Hooper, he's accounted for 17% of the targets over the past two games and hasn't been out-snapped by David Njoku ($7,000) since Week 3. At a salary of $7,500, Hooper is plenty viable.
So much of the Ravens' offense funnels through Jackson, Brown and Andrews that it's hard to feel good about anyone else. While Devonta Freeman ($11,000) appears to be the Ravens' lead back, the salary is tough to stomach. That leads me to Rashod Bateman ($8,500).
In the two games since Sammy Watkins ($7,500) came back, Bateman has put up a 19% target share and 21% air yards share. Hollywood and Jackson missed one of those two games, so we shouldn't put too much stock into those numbers, but it looks like the rookie wideout has a real shot to become the team's number-two receiver even with Watkins back. We project Bateman for 8.3 FanDuel points and rate him as the best point-per-dollar play among those with a four-digit salary.
Kickers are best suited for lower-scoring games, per Brandon Gdula's single-game study, which is linked in the intro. Both kickers need to be on our radar for this one given the 47.0-point total. Of the two, I side with Justin Tucker ($9,500). The Ravens' kicker is perfect at home this season, going 7-for-7 on field goals and 13-of-13 on extra points. He's missed only one field-goal try since Week 3. We forecast him to tally 9.0 FanDuel points.