NFL Week 11 Power Rankings, Presented by Simple Mobile
Everyone has his or her own set of NFL power rankings, but not all of them are computer-driven, algorithmically-derived approaches that look at underlying data to figure out true team strength.
But numberFire's power rankings do just that.
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Using our nERD metric, which indicates the expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field, here is how our model ranks and rates all 32 teams after 10 weeks.
numberFire's NFL Power Rankings
| Team | Record | nERD | nERD Rank |
Rank Change |
Playoff Odds |
xWins Next 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 6-3 | 12.02 | 1 | 2 | 97.7% | 2.4 |
| Cardinals | 8-2 | 11.87 | 2 | -1 | 99.3% | 2.5 |
| Cowboys | 7-2 | 11.73 | 3 | 1 | 99.2% | 2.3 |
| Buccaneers | 6-3 | 9.21 | 4 | -2 | 99.0% | 2.6 |
| Saints | 5-4 | 5.40 | 5 | 2 | 72.6% | 1.2 |
| Packers | 8-2 | 4.49 | 6 | 5 | 99.5% | 1.9 |
| Rams | 7-3 | 4.48 | 7 | -2 | 95.6% | 1.6 |
| Titans | 8-2 | 4.15 | 8 | -2 | 100.0% | 2.3 |
| Patriots | 6-4 | 3.98 | 9 | 8 | 83.0% | 1.6 |
| Chargers | 5-4 | 3.68 | 10 | -1 | 73.8% | 1.9 |
| Vikings | 4-5 | 3.36 | 11 | -3 | 54.6% | 1.9 |
| 49ers | 4-5 | 2.70 | 12 | 6 | 23.4% | 1.9 |
| Chiefs | 6-4 | 2.55 | 13 | 8 | 74.6% | 1.7 |
| Eagles | 4-6 | 2.12 | 14 | 6 | 30.5% | 2.0 |
| Panthers | 5-5 | -0.29 | 15 | 9 | 8.7% | 2.1 |
| Colts | 5-5 | -0.29 | 15 | 0 | 28.1% | 1.2 |
| Ravens | 6-3 | -0.57 | 17 | -7 | 75.9% | 1.8 |
| Steelers | 5-3 | -0.71 | 18 | -6 | 36.4% | 1.4 |
| Seahawks | 3-6 | -0.81 | 19 | -3 | 10.3% | 1.2 |
| Broncos | 5-5 | -0.88 | 20 | -7 | 21.2% | 1.6 |
| Bengals | 5-4 | -2.30 | 21 | 1 | 42.4% | 1.4 |
| Browns | 5-5 | -2.55 | 22 | -8 | 42.9% | 1.8 |
| Giants | 3-6 | -3.67 | 23 | 0 | 3.2% | 1.0 |
| Raiders | 5-4 | -3.99 | 24 | -5 | 23.1% | 1.2 |
| Dolphins | 3-7 | -4.87 | 25 | 1 | 0.8% | 1.6 |
| Football Team | 3-6 | -5.16 | 26 | 3 | 1.1% | 1.1 |
| Jaguars | 2-7 | -7.36 | 27 | 1 | 0.1% | 0.9 |
| Bears | 3-6 | -8.27 | 28 | -3 | 0.5% | 1.0 |
| Falcons | 4-5 | -8.94 | 29 | -2 | 2.5% | 0.6 |
| Jets | 2-7 | -11.65 | 30 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.9 |
| Texans | 1-8 | -13.23 | 31 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.7 |
| Lions | 0-8 | -14.09 | 32 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.6 |
The Buffalo Bills are back on top of the power rankings with their 6-3 record. Their playoff odds are up to 97.7%, and they boast the NFL's top adjusted defense, via numberFire's metrics. Their 14.2% Super Bowl win odds are also league-best. They do face stiffer competition over the next few weeks, however: their next six matchups are all against top-half teams by nERD. We'll find out how real they are soon enough.
The Dallas Cowboys' temporary roadblock we saw last week has been obliterated. A weak showing in Week 9 (a 14-point loss to the Denver Broncos) was followed up by a 40-point drubbing of the Atlanta Falcons. numberFire ranks them second, and my ELO-based rankings have them second in the NFL. They're the real deal.
The Green Bay Packers have had an upward trajectory since a Week 1 blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints. They blanked the Seattle Seahawks en route to an eighth-straight win in games started by Aaron Rodgers. They're now fifth in Super Bowl win odds (10.0%), via our algorithm.
The New England Patriots had the second-biggest rank change of the week (tied with the Kansas City Chiefs). They climbed eight spots and ramped up their playoff odds by 33.1 points to 83.0%. Two matchups against the top-ranked Bills still loom (Weeks 13 and 16), but a slew of winnable games remain, as well. A wild card berth is very much in play after other AFC teams stumbled this week.
The 12-through-20 range is where we saw the biggest ranking shifts this week. The San Francisco 49ers (+6), Kansas City Chiefs (+8), Philadelphia Eagles (+6), and Carolina Panthers (+9) had the more optimistic shifts in this range.
The Baltimore Ravens (-7), Pittsburgh Steelers (-6), Seattle Seahawks (-3), Denver Broncos (-7), and Cleveland Browns (-8) took a tumble in the power rankings after combining for zero wins.
The Las Vegas Raiders were perhaps Week 10's biggest loser, however. They fell five spots in the power rankings to 24th overall but more importantly saw their playoff odds fall to 23.1%, a plummet of 23.0 percentage points. The lopsided loss to the Chiefs led to a drop of 3.66 points to the Raiders' nERD score.
