Fantasy Football: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 10
One of the things that makes fantasy football so captivating is the variance. Derrick Henry was the RB1 in all of fantasy in 0.5 PPR in 2020, but Henry himself only had three weeks as the top fantasy scorer. That means, on individual weeks, some very strange players may lead the league in fantasy points at their positions.
That opens the door for some room to be "spicy" and make some fun predictions. In a landscape increasingly set ablaze by "hot takes," it can be difficult to understand the difference between a bold prediction -- based on a particularly strong spot for a team or player -- and a senseless take with the prayer of becoming correct based on variance.
Let's shoot for the former with five interesting spots to target during this weekend's NFL games.
(All predictions are for half-PPR and FanDuel scoring for quarterbacks.)
1. Dak Gets Back on Track with a Top-3 Quarterback Week
It was a "burn the tape" Sunday for the Dallas Cowboys.
Nothing went right in their pitiful loss to the Broncos, but their offense at least should have an opportunity to rebound to its 2021 form against the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta's resurgence hasn't exactly come as a defensive juggernaut; the Falcons are still allowing 0.15 Adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, and that is the sixth-worst mark of the teams playing this weekend.
The Cowboys' offense starts with Dak Prescott. It's not exactly bold in a vacuum to post Dak as a top-three quarterback this week when he's projected third amongst quarterbacks by numberFire. However, a poor performance against Denver combined with a season where just about any NFL prediction is increasingly becoming a bold one, we'll roll with it.
The reason why highlighting Dak in this plus matchup is worthwhile is his teammates. Ezekiel Elliott is apparently dealing with a knee issue, and Michael Gallup is returning to the lineup to mix up the pecking order amongst Dak's weapons. There could be a rotating cast around Prescott this weekend, and that makes him an even larger focal point in daily formats.
Not only do the Falcons this week allow the fourth-most points to quarterbacks (21.2), but Dak's playoff schedule also includes Washington and Philadelphia. Lamar Jackson might be the only fantasy quarterback I wouldn't try to trade for Prescott during this buy-low opportunity.
2. Christian McCaffery Sees 35-Plus Adjusted Opportunities
Christian McCaffrey really wasn't eased into action despite the Panthers getting throttled by New England.
Don't let his 47.9% snap rate fool you. McCaffery saw 14 carries and 5 targets in his debut game. That was good enough 24 adjusted opportunities (carries plus double targets). McCaffery saw a target on 4 of the 10 routes he ran, and he saw 14 of Carolina's 17 running back carries. He just wasn't in the game to pass block.
After another week removed from his hamstring injury, he will likely be a vital part of the Panthers' offense once again. Not even Matt Rhule has an idea who the starter at quarterback will be, but both options (Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker) stink. That likely means a third straight week where the Panthers' average depth of target (aDoT) is below seven.
McCaffery is a known check-down king, and his matchup is much better than the vertical pass catchers. Arizona's stellar defense is only allowing -0.06 Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play (second-fewest in the NFL), but they're allowing 0.03 Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. It's not an amazing matchup, but it's substantially easier for the running game.
Long story short -- don't have any hesitation starting McCaffery despite his workload or matchup this weekend.
3. Jakobi Meyers Scores His First Career Touchdown
Maybe Jakobi Meyers has asked not to score for the Patriots because he's the ultimate #TeamGuy, but it's more likely just unfortunate circumstances.
As you likely know to this point as a diehard fantasy football player, Jakobi Meyers hasn't scored a touchdown this season. Or last season. Or his entire career.
That's common for many players, but not those receiving the work that Meyers does as the Pats' top wideout:
| Name | POS | Team | Targets | Rec TDs | TDs Per Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | NE | 72 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Laviska Shenault | WR | JAC | 49 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Cole Kmet | TE | CHI | 44 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Michael Carter | RB | NYJ | 40 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Cole Beasley | WR | BUF | 67 | 1 | 0.01 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | 57 | 1 | 0.02 |
| Mecole Hardman | WR | KC | 53 | 1 | 0.02 |
| Chase Claypool | WR | PIT | 52 | 1 | 0.02 |
| Allen Robinson | WR | CHI | 50 | 1 | 0.02 |
**Includes All NFL Players With 40 or More Targets
With the sample only including players with 40-plus targets, Meyers has 23 more targets than the next significant offensive weapon that hasn't caught a touchdown this season. It's approaching a strange level where regression in an absurd, multi-touchdown game fashion seems inevitable.
Cleveland is a thoroughly average matchup for it to happen. The Browns are allowing the 13th-most Passing NEP per drop back to opponents (0.15) and the 16th-most FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers (29.3). Importantly, the Patriots have a workable matchup for Meyers for the first time in two weeks. Both Carolina and the L.A. Chargers are bottom-five teams in FanDuel points per game allowed to wideouts.
Therefore, with a little more room to operate, the prediction is Meyers finds well-deserved paydirt for the first time on Sunday.
4. Hey Arnold! Dan Posts a Top-10 Week at Tight End
A tight end seeing his team's top target share is worth its weight in gold in fantasy football.
The past two weeks, that distinction only applies to five tight ends -- Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, and the Jaguars' Dan Arnold.
Jacksonville's offense is obviously dreadful, but they're willing to funnel balls their big man's way, so I'm interested. Arnold had 17 targets overall in the past two weeks, and 2 of those were high-leverage (deep or red-zone targets) looks. Jacksonville's assignment with Buffalo last week was predictably brutal.
The Colts are allowing the seventh-most FanDuel points per game (13.5) to opposing tight ends. The last four tight ends they've faced are Jordan Akins, Ross Dwelley, Geoff Swaim, and Ryan Griffin as well, so this isn't a matchup that should be on many radars from recent performances.
If you're in need of a streamer with four teams on bye -- or even a desperation heave in a deeper league as a flex -- Arnold makes plenty of sense as the Jags' top pass catcher.
5. New England's D/ST Posts a Fourth Straight Top-5 Week
Don't look now, but Bill Belichick has his guys in peak form.
The Patriots D/ST has posted three straight top-five weeks -- including the top overall D/ST score in Week 9 against the struggling Sam Darnold. Many may buy back into the Browns offense after they scored 41 points against Cincinnati, but there are plenty of layers to unpack before projecting them for a high score against New England this week.
Baker Mayfield did play well in Week 9. He averaged 0.54 Passing NEP per drop back. However, he averaged -0.04 Passing NEP per drop back in the three weeks prior -- with and without Odell Beckham. Just because a declining Bengals' defense was out to lunch this past weekend doesn't inspire a ton of confidence in Mayfield's longer sample.
Nick Chubb is also a question mark this week due to COVID-19 protocols, and personally, that lends serious doubt to whether Mayfield can solve Belichick's puzzle with just D'Ernest Johnson and Jarvis Landry in tow.
The prediction is -- at home -- the Pats stifle Mayfield and force him into a similar afternoon as Arizona did; Mayfield had three turnovers in Week 7.
