Sunday Night Football Betting: Where Can You Find Value in the Cowboys-Vikings Clash?

We have quite the interesting matchup on our hands tonight as two top-six teams, according to our nERD-based power rankings, square off on All Hallow's Eve as the Dallas Cowboys travel to the Twin Cities to face the Minnesota Vikings.

The home Vikings are 2.5-point favorites, and the game has a 51.5-point total, per NFL odds.

Let's dive into what we think could be some interesting betting angles for this contest.

What's Going on With Dak?

Will Dak Prescott be under center tonight for Dallas?

That is the major issue surrounding the Dallas Cowboys, and Dak's status impacts a lot of things from a betting perspective

If he is able to give this thing a go, which is what Dallas hopes for, the dude has been incredible this season. Prescott rocks a 0.35 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back -- well above last season's league average of 0.09 NEP. He's thrown for 16 touchdowns, and he has a 55.67% Passing Success Rate. Dak is one of the best signal-callers in the game. Our metrics have the Cowboys as the league's third-best offense.

Kirk Cousins hasn't been too shabby, either. His 0.29 Passing NEP per drop back is a really good mark, as has his 50.81% Passing Success Rate. Cousins has just 13 touchdown passes to his name, but he's also threw only two picks, too.

The run game will certainly test both of these defensive units. Ezekiel Elliott already has 521 rushing yards, and he's been kept fresh this season with change-of-pace back Tony Pollard also figuring in prominently into the offensive mix. Pollard has 366 rushing yards and 15 catches on the season.

Dalvin Cook has been doing Dalvin Cook-type things this year. Prior to the bye week, he went off for 140 rushing yards and a score, and he's been excellent when healthy, per usual.

Bets to Consider

As I mentioned at the start, the Vikings are 2.5-point favorites, and the total is 51.5 points, according to NFL odds.

Our model sees a little value in the home Vikings, and we can expect some movement on this line if Dak is out.

We are projecting this to be a 29.31-26.45 win for the Vikings, forecasting them cover this spread 54.9% of the time. There is no value on the moneyline. We give Minnesota win odds of 59.8%. At -144, the Vikings' implied win odds are 59.0%.

As for the total, our model projects the over to win out at a rate of 60.1%.

In the player prop market, it's hard to ignore the involvement of Dalvin Cook this season, especially in the passing game. He's logged 18 targets across four games, and he's played at least 71% of the snaps in every game but one, with the exception being an injury-marred Week 4. The line on his receiving yards is at 23.5, and we project him for 28.3 receiving yards.

Historical Betting Trends

-- Dallas has been perfect against the spread this season.
-- Points have been plentiful when Dallas plays. The over has hit in their last four games.
-- Going the opposite direction, the under has won out in the last four Minnesota games.
-- The Cowboys are 1-7 straight-up in their last eight primetime games.