NFL Betting Guide: Week 6
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Under 50.5 (-110): 3-Star Rating out of 5
The 2020 Dallas Cowboys gave up 473 points, the fifth-most in the league. They gave up the second-most rushing yards as well as an appalling 5.0 yards per carry (YPC), and they ended up allowing the seventh-highest passer rating. There were a few bright spots, however. The team gave up a completion rate of just 63.9% -- 13th in the league -- and ended up with 12 fumble recoveries, tied for second-best behind the Carolina Panthers.
The 2021 Cowboys defense looks like it took the good and forgot the bad from their 2020 selves and has transformed into a unit that is to be feared.
Coming into their Week 6 matchup against the New England Patriots, the Cowboys have the third-best defense in the league, according to numberFire's rankings. That abysmal 5.0 YPC is down to a respectable 4.2, and their 10 interceptions lead the league.
Despite that, their strong offense has caused the over to hit in four of five games; there have been at least 60 points scored in those four games. However, we don't see the over hitting this week.
The Cowboys and Pats will be playing in New England this week, where there has been no more than 41 total points scored in a game this season. Since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay, the Patriots and their opponents have scored more than 50 points just once.
Dallas is coming off three games in a row in which the over hit. Since the start of last year, the over has gone just 10-17 when away teams are in that situation. The over is just 4-14 the past 18 times that has happened, including 0-3 this year.
Our model projects the teams to combine for 45.5 points this week. We give the under a 64.1% chance of hitting. With an expected return of 22.3%, we mark the under as a three-star play.
Packers -5.5 (-110): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Packers Moneyline (-235): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears may be one of the league's deepest-rooted rivalries, but the results haven't been very balanced in the last few years. numberFire's model does not expect that to change this week as the two teams clash at Soldier Field.
The Packers quickly shook off a Week 1 38-3 loss to the New Orleans Saints and have since won four games in a row. They lead the division at 4-1, but the Bears are right on their heels at 3-2 despite being outscored by 16 points this season.
The Bears' defense (seventh in numberFire's rankings) has led them to their winning record, and they held the Las Vegas Raiders to just nine points last week. They're giving up 8.0 passing yards per attempt this year, however, which is tied for the ninth-worst mark in the league. That doesn't bode well against a revamped Aaron Rodgers, who has the third-best passer rating in the league since his Week 1 debacle.
The Packers averaged 38.0 points in their two wins against the Bears last year, with Rodgers throwing for four scores in each game. The Packers have now won four straight and nine of the last 10 of their meetings against the Bears, going 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in that span. The Bears have lost their last four meetings against opponents with winning records after winning their previous two games.
numberFire projects the Packers to win by 6.6 points this week. We give the Packers a 71.4% chance to win and a 53.4% chance of covering the 5.5-point spread. With an expected return of 1.7% and 2.0%, respectively, we mark the Packers moneyline and spread bets as one-star plays.
Over 45.5 (-110): 3-Star Rating out of 5
After averaging 29.0 points through their first three games, the Minnesota Vikings have put up an average of just 13.0 in their past two. Our model expects their offense to bounce back this week as they head east to take on the Carolina Panthers.
The over has hit in four of the past six times that the Vikings have come off consecutive games in which they scored fewer than 20 points. They've scored at least 25 points in four of those six.
The over has hit three of the past four times that the Vikings and Panthers have faced off. The teams combined for 55 points in each of their past two meetings, including a 28-27 Vikings win in Week 6 last year.
We project the teams to combine for 50.5 points in their Week 6 matchup. We give the over a 63.4% chance of hitting. With an expected return of $121 for every $100 wagered, we have the over marked as a three-star play.