FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Dolphins vs. Jaguars (10/17/21)
On NFL odds, the Miami Dolphins are 3.0-point favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game with a 47.0-point total. That makes the implied score 25.00-22.00.
This is a London matchup that kicks off at 9:30 a.m. EST.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars ($16,000)
Despite having quality corners, the Miami defense hasn't done well against the pass, allowing the sixth-most (22.4) FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. Our power rankings rate them as the second-worst pass D, better than only the defense on the other sideline.
That's good news for Trevor Lawrence, whose fantasy production has been on the rise. Over the last two games, he's produced 17.76 and 22.72 FanDuel points, and he's run it a whopping 15 times in that span, raising both his floor and his ceiling.
Lawrence will be a popular MVP pick -- it's kind of hard telling who will be the chalk MVP -- and we project him for 18.6 FanDuel points, the second-most.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins ($15,000)
Tua Tagovailoa will make his return, and our model is very into him, pegging him to produce a slate-best 19.9 FanDuel points.
He's coming back to about as good of a matchup as you can dream up. Jacksonville is the worst pass D in the league by our numbers, and Miami is a 3.0-point favorite.
The negatives with Tua on Sunday are the same as they seemingly always are -- he might not be very good, and he's dealing with a short-handed supporting cast as Will Fuller and DeVante Parker are out. But as I said at the jump, he's the top-projected play on the slate, and if the masses are a little hesitant in Tua's first game back, he might not see as much MVP love as most signal-callers would in this spot.
James Robinson, Jaguars ($14,500)
James Robinson is salaried way up for this one after scoring 22.4, 20.1 and 21.2 FanDuel points over his last three. He smashed the Tennessee Titans for 149 yards and a tud last week and could roll against a Miami run defense that we rank as the third-worst.
On the negative, J-Rob hasn't played more than 73% of the snaps in any game in which Carlos Hyde was active, and Hyde is expected to play. Robinson was in on 68% of the snaps in last week's big outing and handled 18 of 23 running-back carries, so his role is still pretty sweet all things considered. But Hyde is likely to play around 25% of the snaps, and that is at least noteworthy given Robinson's $14,500 salary.
Our model has Robinson scoring 13.9 FanDuel points and ranks him as the top non-quarterback.
Myles Gaskin, Dolphins ($11,000)
The weird-but-not-super-weird MVP pick I'm into is Myles Gaskin.
Gaskin is coming off a two-tuddy game of 26.9 FanDuel points, so he won't fly under anyone's radar. But his usage was promising as he logged a season-best 69% snap share. Miami registered just seven running-back carries, opting to not challenge the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' tough run D, but Gaskin handled five of them while adding in 10 catches for 74 yards, with both of his scores coming through the air.
It's fair to wonder if Gaskin will be the clear top running back again since he hadn't been that in either of Week 3 or Week 4, so maybe the negative game script versus the Bucs was a factor. But the matchup is a great one against a Jax defense that we rate as the second-worst against the run. They've allowed the fifth-most (26.1) FanDuel points per game to running backs.
With a projection of 12.8 FanDuel points, Gaskin is a really nice play at a reasonable salary, and if you're leery of Tua and the Miami passing game, Gaskin is the perfect way to get access to the Dolphins' offense.
Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins ($10,500)
Jaylen Waddle will be Miami's de facto number-one receiver sans Fuller and Parker.
Fuller and Parker were out a week ago in a game in which Brissett chucked it 39 times, and Waddle ended up with only two catches for 31 yards on six targets. That's not ideal. Neither is Waddle's laughable 4.2-yard average depth of target. But the rookie led Miami wideouts last week with an 80% snap rate, and he's seen 23 total targets over the last three games.
Jacksonville is an inviting matchup, ranking last against the pass, according to our metrics, and we project Waddle for 12.8 FanDuel points and have him as the second-best point-per-dollar option on the slate (behind only Tua).
Laviska Shenault, Jaguars ($10,000)
With D.J. Chark exiting on the first series in Week 4, we have basically two games of data with Chark out of the picture. In those two games, Marvin Jones ($11,500) has played 93% of the snaps in each while accounting for 14% of the targets and 24% of the air yards. Laviska Shenault has logged 75% and 73% of the snaps and owns a 16% target share and 27% air yards share in that time.
Jones held a 23% target share after three games and is probably due for an uptick in targets. But when choosing between the two of them for this slate, give me Shelault and the $1,500 savings.
Our algorithm rates them as nearly identical point-per-dollar plays -- Jones for 10.6 FanDuel points and Shenault for 9.4 -- so feel free to lock in whichever one you prefer.
Mike Gesicki, Dolphins ($9,500)
If you aren't into Waddle, you can plug in either Mike Gesicki or this next guy to get exposure to the Dolphins' passing game.
Gesicki has been in on at least 64% of the snaps in every game since Week 1 and has seen solid usage with an 18% target share and 25% air yards share. The air yards share is actually tied for second among all tight ends, so he has some big-play juice.
Admittedly, the $9,500 salary is a little tough to swallow. But that could scare away some people, and he has 25 total targets over the last three games. Plus, the Jags have permitted the eighth-most (13.1) FanDuel points per game to the position.
Gesicki could lead Miami in targets on Sunday, and our numbers have him racking up 9.5 FanDuel points. He's our best point-per-dollar pick among those with a four-digit salary.
Preston Williams, Dolphins ($7,000)
Preston Williams makes sense as a dart throw with Miami depleted at receiver.
Sans Parker last week, Williams played 74% of the snaps and turned five looks into three catches for 60 yards. His 35% target share in Weke 5 was tops on the team, as was his 14.2-yard average depth of target.
There are paths to a good output for Williams, especially if Miami doesn't get out to a comfy lead. We forecast him to put up 6.8 FanDuel points, which makes him just a slightly worse point-per-dollar option than Gesicki.
Dan Arnold, Jaguars ($7,000)
Dan Arnold took hold of the Jags' tight end spot last week, playing 73% of the snaps and seeing eight targets. He's been with the team for only two games -- one of which was a short-week Thursday affair -- but he's paced Jacksonville in target share across those two contests at a 17% clip.
The Jags gave up C.J. Henderson, the ninth pick in the 2020 draft, for Arnold and have made their new tight end a key cog right away. They obviously like him.
Arnold is projected for 6.6 FanDuel points, per our model, and he's a fine low-salary target.