NFL Betting Guide: Week 4
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Packers -6.5: 1-Star Rating out of 5
Packers Moneyline (-275): 1-Star Rating out of 5
After getting trounced 38-3 by the New Orleans Saints to start the season, the Green Bay Packers have bounced back with two straight wins and sit at the top of the heap in the NFC North. This week they'll host a Pittsburgh Steelers team whose trajectory has been a complete 180 from the Packers.
The Steelers' defense has been uncharacteristically poor the past two weeks, which coincided with T.J. Watt's absence. Watt was a full participant in Thursday's practice, however, and his presence will be needed if the Steelers hope to have any chance against the Packers.
The Packers have gone 9-1 straight up (SU) in their past 10 games at home after an away win. The Steelers have lost five of their past six away games after a two-game losing streak. They've gone 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in those games.
numberFire projects the Packers to win by 7.8 points. We give them a 74.6% chance of winning and a 53.7% chance of covering the 6.5-point spread. We mark both bets as one-star plays.
Saints -7.0: 2-Star Rating out of 5
Saints Moneyline (-335): 3-Star Rating out of 5
The New York Giants' offense has had a few sparks this year, but they've struggled with consistency. They surprised with 29 points in a nail-biting loss to the Washington Football Team in Week 2 but petered out last week by only putting up 14 points against an Atlanta Falcons defense that had given up a combined 80 points in the first two weeks of the season.
If you're looking to place a bet on the Giants' offense to have a resurgence this week, you'd be doing so against our model. The Giants take on a New Orleans Saints defense that we have ranked as the fifth-best in the league. The Saints' D has looked superb in two of three games this year. While they did have a setback in Week 2 against the Carolina Panthers, they were also without star cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who played last week and has practiced this week.
Home teams are 6-4 ATS and 9-1 SU when favored by at least seven points this season. New Orleans has won eight of their last 10 home games when favored by at least seven points. numberFire gives the Saints an 82.1% chance of winning and a 58.0% chance of covering the 7.0-point spread. With expected returns of 6.7% and 10.4%, we mark the Saints' moneyline and spread bets as two- and three-star plays, respectively.
Over 42.5 (-110): 4-Star Rating out of 5
While we're entering only Week 4, the Indianapolis Colts' season already seems on the ropes. They enter this week's game against the Miami Dolphins at 0-3; only 2.6% of teams have made the playoffs after an 0-3 start since the league expanded to a 16-game season (maybe an extra game this year will be their saving grace).
Defense, or lack thereof, has been the Colts' major downfall this year. The Colts have given up 26.7 points per game (and no fewer than 25 points in any one game), and our model has them as the seventh-worst defensive team in the league. To make matters worse, they may be without defensive starters Khari Willis, Rock Ya-Sin, and Kwity Paye -- none of whom practiced on Thursday. Darius Leonard did practice but is still nursing an ankle injury.
In Week 4 last season, the over was 4-0 in games where no team had more than one win. Those games saw a minimum of 54 points scored. While our model doesn't see such a high-scoring affair in this contest, our projected total of 48.2 points is still enough to give the over a 66.7% chance of hitting. With an expected return of $127.33 for every $100 wagered, we mark the over as a four-star play.