Fantasy Football: 6 Bold Predictions for Week 14

You ever eat a banana dipped in ketchup? If you answered "yes" to that question, you might want to get yourself checked out -- however, I will say this, it certainly is a bold meal choice.

Not to be confused with baldness, boldness would be sporting a mohawk at the ripe young age of 75. In an unrealistic football analogy, boldness would be trading the best receiver in football for a washed-up running back with a huge contract. Ehhh, no one would be that stup...oh, nevermind.

For this article, we'll focus the boldness on fantasy football. Think of this piece like Taco Tuesday -- it's better when it's spicy, but the spiciness is not what it's all about; it's there to add flavor. The point here is not to hit on 100% of the predictions. After all, I'm not a vomiting hippo. The goal here is to uncover insights that can help us win some dough in fantasy. The idea is to uncover some players that might either have an amazing week or post a complete dud.

Now, let's eat a serving of ketchup banana (yuck).

(All predictions are for half-PPR and FanDuel scoring for quarterbacks.)

1. Tom Brady Finishes as a Top-3 Quarterback

Despite his lack of rushing statistics, Tom Brady ($7,800 on FanDuel) has been a weekly top-three fantasy finisher on three different occasions this season already. Week 14 could bring about a fourth.

On the surface, the Minnesota Vikings might not look like the friendliest of matchups. Minnesota has surrendered the fifth-fewest fantasy points to passers over their last five games. However, that five-game stretch saw them go up against a banged-up Matthew Stafford, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, and Mike Glennon. Prior to that stretch, the Vikings had yielded 20 or more fantasy points to a signal-caller in five of their first seven games, including more than 25 three times.

Our managing editor, Brandon Gdula, tracks the pace of every team when their win probability when their win percentage was between 20% and 80% -- the combined pace of these two squads results in the fastest-paced game on the Week 14 slate. Combine that with the fact that Tampa has a 29.5-point implied total and you have the makings of a boom performance from the 43-year-old.

2. Jalen Hurts Records Fewer Than 15 Fantasy Points

Likely to be a popular play this week in his first career start, Jalen Hurts ($6,600) could be letting a lot of fantasy managers down.

First off, Hurts will be going up against one of the hottest (if not the hottest) defenses in all of football. The New Orleans Saints come in ranking fourth in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, and that's despite the fact that they ceded 15 touchdown passes through their first five games. On the season, New Orleans has given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points and only 75 rush yards to total. Hurts is likely someone that will need to rely on rushing production for a reliable floor, and that just might not be the case this week.

Second, we cannot overlook just how inept the Philadelphia Eagles' offense looked with Carson Wentz running the show. This is a team that ranks third-worst in pass offense, per our models. Additionally, let's not forget that Wentz has been sacked 10 more times than any quarterback in 2020. Yes, Wentz has been downright awful this year -- but we can't just assume that it was all him.

There's a not-so-slim chance that Hurts struggles to produce in his first start.

3. Jonathan Taylor Racks Up 110+ Yards and a Touchdown

It appears that rookie running back season is here, and at the forefront of that pack is Jonathan Taylor ($7,000). In his last two games, Taylor has amassed 42 opportunities (35 carries and 7 targets), 249 yards, and 1 score -- on snap shares of 55% and 48%, respectively.

This week, the rookie will carry his recent hot streak into Sin City as the Indianapolis Colts will be taking on the Las Vegas Raiders. According to our metrics, the Raiders are tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the worst run defense in the league. That helps. To date, nine running backs have managed at least 15 FanDuel points against Las Vegas through 12 games. Including Ty Johnson last week, four backs have surpassed my predicted total of 110 yards and a touchdown against this defense.

Taylor has amassed 110 or more yards three times in 2020, including in consecutive games entering this week. It's not far-fetched to think that he could have a career-best week in the opening round of the fantasy playoffs.

4. Corey Davis Finishes as a WR1

Corey Davis ($6,800) has quietly been a consistent fantasy option this season. He's seen at least seven targets in 5 of his 10 games, and he has scored fewer than 8.5 FanDuel points just once -- he's topped 11 six times.

Davis could benefit from A.J. Brown either playing through an injury -- he didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday with a bum ankle -- or completely missing Sunday's affair. Either way, he should be in for an explosive performance. The Tennessee Titans will be taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have ceded at least 13.9 FanDuel points to nine wideouts...over their last five games. During that stretch, the Jags have surrendered 79 receptions, 1,035 yards, and 8 tuddies. Sheesh.

Tennessee has a 30-point implied total for this one, which is third-highest on Sunday's main slate. Look for Davis to have a significant role in all that scoring.

Monday Night Special

5. Jarvis Landry Finishes Outside the Top-40 at Wide Receiver

For those who have held on to Jarvis Landry ($6,300), or for those who have repeatedly gone back to him in DFS, the last two weeks have been extremely rewarding. On 21 targets, Landry has stockpiled 40.5 FanDuel points over his last two outings.

All that said, those who wish to keep riding him could be sorely disappointed in Week 14. The Cleveland Browns will be squaring off with the Baltimore Ravens this week in what is a brutally tough matchup for Landry. This season, Baltimore has ceded more than 10.2 FanDuel points to a receiver 11 times, and only one of those performances came by a slot-heavy wideout. For reference, 10.2 half-PPR points would have been good for a WR46 finish in Week 13, and that's despite two teams having a bye.

Cleveland could try to move Landry around, but Baltimore has been pretty stingy to the position overall, conceding the seventh-fewest FanDuel points on the season.

6. Mark Andrews Finishes as a Top-2 Tight End

As long as Travis Kelce is on a slate, I'll never predict another player to finish as the TE1, but I am comfortable in forecasting a top-two finish for Mark Andrews ($6,600).

Over his last 16 games, Andrews has recorded more than 20 FanDuel points twice -- both of those came against Cleveland. In fact, Andrews has now totaled 182 yards and 5 touchdowns in his last three games against the Browns. That'll play.

Since Week 9, only the New York Jets have surrendered more fantasy points to opposing tight ends than Cleveland -- who have allowed five tight ends to hit paydirt during that stretch.

Expect an explosive performance from Andrews on Monday Night Football.