Week 12 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Logan Thomas Is a Red Zone Monster
Week 12 may have been the craziest week yet of the 2020 NFL season. With postponements and games being played with teams undermanned, the pandemic has brought a whole new set of obstacles for fantasy owners. We can never sit still.
With that in mind, here are some usage trends from the past week that can help you as you prepare for the fantasy playoffs.
Rushing Marking Shares
Ito Smith, Falcons
It was Ito Smith -- not Brian Hill -- who stood out last week in an Atlanta Falcons that was without Todd Gurley. Smith rushed 12 times for 65 yards and added one touchdown. He also added 4 receptions for 10 yards on 5 targets.
Hill was a popular DFS value target and a hot waiver add last week, but he finished with only 13 rushing attempts for 55 yards and had zero catches. This was way more of an even split than we assumed it would be.
If Gurley is out again in Week 13, Smith may be worth a start as the good outing could get him even more work than the 42.8 percent share of the running-back carries he got in Week 12.
DeAndre Washington, Miami
If Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed are out again this coming week, DeAndre Washington is the guy we want from the Miami Dolphins' backfield as Matt Breida and Patrick Laird were barely factors in Week 12.
Washington logged 13 rushes for 49 yards, adding 2 grabs for 11 yards on 5 targets. Breida, meanwhile, had 8 carries for 36 yards and 2 receptions for 17 yards. Laird got one measly carry. Washington handled 59 percent of the running back carries.
With Ryan Fitzpatrick possibly under center this next week, Miami's offense could once again open up and be a lot more fantasy friendly. Of course, the return of Gaskin and/or Ahmed would likely make Washington merely a bench option for fantasy.
Receiving Market Shares
Hunter Renfrow, Raiders
Renfrow’s 7 receptions for 73 yards on 9 targets led the team this last Sunday. His 24.3 percent target share was valueable, and he has drawn the eyes of Derek Carr far more often than rookie Henry Ruggs has. And it's simply no secret that the Raiders' coaching staff isn't quite sure what to do with Ruggs.
The blowout loss to Atlanta is a head-scratcher and added to Renfrow's raw volume, but he looks like a solid PPR flex play moving forward.
Tee Higgins, Bengals
While this offense isn't nearly as fun as it was with Joe Burrow at the controls, Brandon Allen targeted Higgins five times last week, which tied for the most targets on the team. The rook turned that into 5 receptions for 44 yards and a touchdown versus the New York Giants. The catches and yards were both team highs, and Boyd finished with only 3 catches for 15 yards.
Higgins' 22.7 percent target share is a number he can get behind, and it keeps Higgins as a flex-worthy option down the stretch even without Burrow.
Red Zone Market Shares
Clyde Edwards Helaire, Chiefs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn't been quite what fantasy managers were hoping for, and a drop in overall volume in recent weeks has hurt his fantasy stock. But one thing CEH has going for him is a place in one of the best offenses in football.
And with the red zone work he's getting, CEH is going to carry solid touchdown equity every week. Edwards-Helaire is handling 54.3 percent of the Kansas City Chiefs' red zone rushing work, the 11th-best rate among all backs. He's accounted for 66.7 percent of KC's carries inside the five, the ninth-best mark.
With a red zone role like that, Edwards-Helaire is going to hold firmly in the RB2 range -- even if he's become a more touchdown-reliant fantasy asset than he was earlier this season.
Logan Thomas, Washington
Logan Thomas has become a somewhat reliable option at a tight end position that doesn't have many of them.
Thomas has no doubt benefitted from Alex Smith taking over as the tight end has seen 14 targets across Smith's three starts. That's not otherworldly, obviously, but it's where he's getting those targets that matters.
Thomas is handling 34.4 percent of the Washington Football Team's red zone looks, and he leads all pass-catchers -- not just tight ends -- with a whopping 58.3 percent share of targets inside the 10.
While he'll likely be reliant on touchdowns for most of his fantasy output, Thomas is capable of finding the paint often if he keeps getting this kind of workload in the red zone.