Week 11 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Denzel Mims Is Making Some Noise
The fantasy playoffs are fast approaching, and you never know which player could wind up making a huge difference for your team. And as we've seen in 2020, you never know when someone you're relying on as a weekly starter could suddenly be placed on the COVID list.
With that in mind, I'm going to dig a little deeper on a few of these and highlight some waiver-wire players who may be a break away from being important fantasy options.
Rushing Market Shares
Boston Scott, Eagles
When Miles is healthy, Scott doesn't get enough work to have any standalone value, finishing the Philadelphia Eagles' Week 11 loss with 5 carries and 3 catches, which he turned into 50 total yards. But Scott is the clear handcuff to Sanders as they were the lone running backs to get a carry this past Sunday.
Philly has a decent schedule for running backs down the stretch. They get the Seattle Seahawks this week and the Green Bay Packers after that. Then in the fantasy postseason, Philly has the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15 and the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16.
If Sanders stays healthy, Scott will do nothing more than burn a bench spot on your roster. But if Sanders were to miss any time, Scott could be a huge difference maker.
Rodney Smith, Panthers
Christian McCaffrey is quickly looking like a player who we may not see again in 2020. With the Carolina Panthers going nowhere and injuries piling up, the team's eyes might be better focused on 2021.
Mike Davis was a beast earlier this season, but he's slowed considerably in recent weeks. It wouldn't be surprising to see Carolina lessen Davis' workload a bit, and that's where Rodney Smith comes in. Smith had 8 carries for 29 yards in Week 11, and he makes for an interesting stash after handling 28.5 percent of the running-back carries in the 20-0 win over the Detroit Lions.
Receiving Market Shares
Damiere Byrd, Patriots
Just when we all felt great about Jakobi Meyers, Damiere Byrd happened last Sunday. He saw 7 targets and turned them into 6 grabs for 132 yards and a score. The targets were second on the team behind James White's 9, and Byrd also added 1 carry for 11 yards.
Meyers, meanwhile, saw only 3 looks after getting 10, 14 and 7 in the previous three games.
Time will tell if Byrd's 18.9 percent target share in Week 11 is something we can bank on moving forward, but with Rex Burkhead (knee) done for the season, the New England Patriots will need a pass-catcher to step up. Burkhead had been targeted at least three times in four of the Pats' last five games.
Denzel Mims, Jets
Denzel Mims is coming on for the New York Jets. After a quiet first half, he was busy after the break and wound up pacing Gang Green with a 29.6 percent target share this past week. His 3 receptions for 71 yards came on 8 targets.
Mims has played only four games this year, but he's been targeted at least seven times in three of them. With the Jets going nowhere, they have every reason to keep Mims out there and see what they have in their 2020 Round 2 pick.
Sure, the Jets' offense stinks, but they have scored 27 and 28 points in their past two games. Mims has a tough draw against the Miami Dolphins in Week 12, but he gets much softer matchups versus the Las Vegas Raiders and Seattle Seahawks after that. He could make some noise the rest of the way.
Red Zone Market Shares
Melvin Gordon, Broncos
Melvin Gordon is very much part of a timeshare in the Denver Broncos' backfield, but he is getting a lot of work in the red zone. That red zone work paid off this last week as Gordon had touchdown runs of 1 yard and 20 yards against the Dolphins.
On the season, Gordon has 15 red zone carries, which he's turned into 4 touchdowns. Phillip Lindsay, on the other hand, has only four red zone rushing attempts. Gordon has accounted for 51.7% of Denver's red zone carries, including 52.9% of the carries inside the 10.
While Gordon's ceiling is capped by Lindsay consistently playing between 30 and 40 percent of the snaps, he can remain on the RB2 radar thanks to his red zone volume.
Jonnu Smith, Titans
Much like Gordon, Jonnu Smith is a player whose value is propped up by red zone work. Anthony Firkser and Geoff Swaim both played at least 40% of the snaps in Week 11, and their increased roles has hurt Smith's overall target volume. After seeing at least seven looks in three of the first four games, Smith hasn't had a seven-look game since.
But Smith has been busy in the red zone, netting 30.2 percent of the Tennessee Titans' red zone targets in 2020. That's the sixth-best clip among all players, with only one tight end (Darren Waller) ahead of him.
Smith's value certainly isn't what it was after the chic breakout pick started well this year, but he's still a serviceable tight end due to the red zone work.