Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 7
Week 6 has left us with three unbeaten teams in the NFL, and one squad that is still winless. Wins and losses in the last week of action have shifted the balance of power throughout the league, and these shifts are currently reflected in the betting markets.
The odds to win the Super Bowl for a lot of teams -- both our nERD-based numbers as well as the betting odds at Super Bowl odds -- differ greatly from those same numbers just one week ago. Here are five teams whose markets shifted considerably after last week's action.
Tennessee Titans
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +1700 (5.6%)
numberFire Title Odds: 4.9%
The Tennessee Titans' epic victory in their clash with the Houston Texans propelled them to a 5-0 record and saw their Super Bowl odds move quite dramatically. At this time last week, the Titans were available at +3100. But now they're available at +1700, the fourth-lowest odds of all AFC teams.
Their odds according to our numbers also saw a slight increase. Before Week 6 the Titans had a 4.7% chance of winning the Super Bowl by our metrics. Now we give them a 4.9% chance.
Chicago Bears
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +3400 (2.9%)
numberFire Title Odds: 2.6%
Taking to social media to decry the Chicago Bears as the worst 5-1 team in NFL history has become something of a craze over the last few days. I don't understand the appeal of the activity myself, as it seems akin to calling out someone for being the poorest millionaire. The betting markets are seeing more enthusiasm for the Bears than others, however. They are now at +3400 to win their second Vince Lombardi Trophy after sitting at +4400 a week ago.
While not ready to sit and call Chicago paper tigers, numberFire's metrics tend to suggest that they are not likely to challenge deep into the postseason. The Bears sit at 15th in nERD ranking, and this has contributed to us giving them a 2.6% chance of ultimate victory. Mind you, we had them at only 0.6% a week ago.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +1300 (7.1%)
numberFire Title Odds: 6.0%
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on the move in the NFC. After they dismantled the Green Bay Packers in Week 6, the betting market saw quite a bit of action on their Super Bowl odds. It didn't bring about a massive shift, it should be stressed.
Tampa Bay was eighth-favorites to win the Super Bowl a week ago and are now seventh. But only three NFC teams have shorter odds than they do, and the Buccaneers just beat one of them. This is a dangerous team on both sides of the ball, as evidenced by their No. 1 ranking in nERD.
New England Patriots
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +3500 (2.8%)
numberFire Title Odds: 3.8%
Tom Brady and his new team are on the rise, while his old team appears to be falling out of contention -- at least in the eyes of the bettors of the world.
The New England Patriots' loss at home to the Drew Lock-led Denver Broncos in Week 6 saw the Pats' record fall to 2-3 and their Super Bowl odds drip to +3500. They were available at +2600 a week ago. Their numberFire odds also fell from 4.9% to 3.8%.
Minnesota Vikings
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +15000 (0.7%)
numberFire Title Odds: 0.2%
The Minnesota Vikings, while not being dismissed entirely before Week 6, are pretty much cooked after this last week's games have concluded. They fell to a 1-5 record thanks to their pummeling at the hands of the previously winless Atlanta Falcons, and Minnesota saw their Super Bowl odds rise in a big way. They had been +8500 longshots a week ago, but now they can be had at the very unlikely odds of +15000.
