FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 3 Sunday Night
Per our oddsFire tool, the public loves Green Bay in this one. A whopping 91% of the moneyline bets are on the Packers, though just 68% of the money coming in on the moneyline is backing Green Bay. On spread bets, 91% of the money and 88% of the bets are on the Packers. The masses are hammering the over, too, with 88% of both the bets and money on the total getting placed on the over.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Alvin Kamara, Saints ($14,500)
We saw this New Orleans offense sans Michael Thomas in Week 2, and the result was a lot of Alvin Kamara. It should be a similar show on Sunday night.
At Oakland last Monday, Kamara recorded 13 carries for 79 yards and two touchdowns on the ground in addition to nine catches (on nine targets) for 95 yards through the air. Kamara hasn't been super efficient as a runner through two games, mostly due to a 12-carry, 17-yard effort against a stout Tampa Bay Buccaneers run D in Week 1, but he could blow up against a Packers run defense that we have as the third-worst in the league.
Kamara is going to be the focal point of the Saints' offense, and he has a stellar floor/ceiling combination on Sunday night. We project him for 18.8 FanDuel points, the most on the slate, and he'll probably be a chalk MVP play. I like him a lot more than I like Aaron Jones ($14,000), who is in a much more difficult spot against the Saints' seventh-ranked run D.
Drew Brees, Saints ($13,500)
A year ago, Rodgers averaged just 224.1 passing yards per game on the road, and he is without his go-to man in Adams, who nearly has has many targets (20) as Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling combined (23).
Brees' ceiling isn't all that sexy, either, without Thomas. But the Saints are implied for 27.75 points, and Brees threw for 332.8 yards and 2.8 passing tuds per game at home in 2019.
Rodgers is worth using, too, and with the wideouts for each side being fairly low in salary, I'd expect most lineups to feature both quarterbacks given how hard the over is getting pounded (as referenced above).
Allen Lazard, Packers ($8,000)
It's a tough call between Lazard and Valdez-Scantling ($9,500), but both should be busy if Adams is out. We project each for 7.2 targets.
Lazard has hauled in seven grabs this year for 108 yards and a score. He's played on 86.5% of the snaps. His 12.7% target share and 15.7% air yards share -- per PlayerProfiler -- aren't fun, but the hope is he sees more volume and more downfield targets without Adams.
We project Lazard for 10.4 FanDuel points while we have MVS slated for 9.9. If you prefer MVS, who has a more appealing 32.5% air yards share, you won't hear much of an argument from me.
Emmanuel Sanders, Saints ($10,000)
Sanders has been a disappointment through two weeks, combining for only four grabs and 23 yards. After his one-catch, 18-yard dud last Monday, he isn't going to be a popular target on this slate -- especially at his lofty salary.
But with Thomas out, Sanders could wind up being a savvy play. He logged a 78% snap rate last week, up from a 49% mark in Week 1, maybe he's more involved this week with the Saints' in need of playmakers out wide.
Latavius Murray, Saints ($7,500)
I thought the absence of Thomas last week could lead to more snaps for Murray. Instead, Murray played just 27% of the snaps, which was down from his Week 1 clip, as the Saints found themselves in a negative game script.
But if you're building under the idea of a Saints win, Murray makes sense. As we mentioned above, this Packers run defense has struggled so far in 2020, and without Thomas, New Orleans could be more run-heavy than usual if they jump out to a lead.