Super Bowl Futures Betting Update: Week 2
The NFL season is, compared to the other major sports, ridiculously short. As such, games can have very meaningful consequences as early as the first week of the season. Overreactions are commonplace, of course. But to under-react in some circumstances can be a critical error.
With Week 1 in the books, there has already been enough information come to light to change the way some teams are perceived. The odds to win the Super Bowl for a lot of teams -- both our nERD-based numbers as well as the betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook -- look quite different than they did a week ago.
Here are the five biggest movers after Week 1.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +2300 (4.2%)
numberFire Title Odds: 2.1%
The Tennessee Titans' odds to win it all have changed dramatically since this time last week. Before the games began, you could get the Titans at +3000. Now, a week later, they are at +2300, which implies 4.2% odds. They have the 10th-best odds to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
We think Tennessee is a good team. The Titans are currently ranked eighth by our nERD metric. But despite that and the direction their odds are headed on FanDuel Sportsbook, their title chances actually dropped from Week 1 to Week 2 -- going from 4.3% to 2.1%.
That's mostly due to our nERD metric ranking the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots as the NFL's three best teams. As long as those three keep doing their thing, that's going to lower the title odds for everyone else in the AFC.
Los Angeles Rams
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +3300 (2.9%)
numberFire Title Odds: 4.5%
Like the Titans, the Los Angeles Rams seem to be much more fancied in the eyes of oddsmakers after Week 1. LA started strongly with a narrow win over the Dallas Cowboys, a team our model has as the second-best 0-1 squad (behind the San Francisco 49ers)
Their Super Bowl winning odds are currently +3300 after sitting at +4000 a week ago. We like their chances better, too, as we moved their championship odds from 2.8% to 4.5%, so we see some betting value in the Rams.
Washington Football Team
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +12000 (0.8%)
numberFire Title Odds: 0.9%
A win over their NFC East rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles, generated an avalanche of goodwill among the gambling community for Washington. Their Super Bowl winning odds now sit at +12000. That's still a very long number, but Washington was at +17000 prior to Week 1.
They also jumped by our numbers, with their title odds improving by 0.8 percentage points. We give them a 0.9% chance to win it all. Again, still not good, but it's a sizable jump from where they opened the year (0.1%).
These are all positives for Washington, of course, but I must take a bucket of cold water to anyone with thoughts of betting on this to happen. Their new price of +12000 is still tied for second-worst among all teams. But still, it's been a rosy start to the year on the field for them.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +3300 (2.9%)
numberFire Title Odds: 1.8%
The Vikings are now at +3300 after starting the season down at +2500. We also slashed their title probability in half -- now giving them a 1.8% chance of lifting the Vince Lombardi after listing them with a 3.6% chance. Having the last-ranked defense -- which they do, per our schedule-adjusted numbers, through one week -- will do that to a team, and we think oddsmakers are still overvaluing them a bit.
FD Sportsbook Title Odds: +2600 (3.7%)
numberFire Title Odds: 2.6%
Similar to what we just laid out for the Vikings, the Eagles' outlook has taken a hit after a loss to a division foe.
You can now get Philly at +2600 to win the Super Bowl. This time a week ago, they were available at +2000.
We've bumped them down, too. We gave them a 4.4% chance to win it all before the season, and that number stands at 2.6% after the defeat to Washington.
If there's any good news for Eagles fans, it's that Dallas -- the team that figures to be Philly's chief competition for the AFC East crown -- also fell in Week 1.