NFL

Hit the Over on Patrick Mahomes' Yardage and Touchdown Props

Elisha Twerski  —  @ElishaTwerski May 13th, 2020

Patrick Mahomes has been a starter for two seasons in the NFL -- he won an MVP in the first, and a Super Bowl MVP in the second. Most would consider that a successful career.

Kansas City's star signal-caller enters his third season with lofty expectations -- but are they lofty enough?

Over at NFL Player Props, Mahomes has over/unders of 4499.5 passing yards and 35.5 passing scores.

Are the overs a slam dunk? Let's take a look.

(If you want a more in-depth look at the best quarterback yardage and touchdown totals to bet, check out Kenyatta Storin's wonderfully researched and written pieces on those. Aside from loving Spiderman 3, his judgment is quite good.)

Historical Production

Mahomes' 2018 was one for the ages. He threw for 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns, and just 12 interceptions. His Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) of 236.27 was 57.3 points higher than the next closest quarterback -- it was also the highest since Peyton Manning posted a score of 275.57 in 2013.

The start of the 24-year-old's 2019 season was far from a letdown. Through six games, he was on pace to throw for 5,611 yards, 37 touchdowns, and just 3 picks. A dislocated knee in the second quarter of Week 7 let to him missing the rest of that game as well as the following two contests.

While he didn't look 100 percent healthy for the remainder of the season, he did throw for 901 yards and 10 scores in three postseason games en route to a Super Bowl victory.

Projection

Despite the fact that he wasn't healthy for a good chunk of the season, Mahomes still posted a 16-game pace of 4,780 yards and 32 touchdowns. One would think that had he been healthy, the pace would've far better than that.

Unless you're a psychic who can predict injuries, this is how hard I'd hit the over on the yardage total:


Our Editor-in-Chief, JJ Zachariason, projects Mahomes to throw for 4964.7 yards and 38.04 touchdowns. Projections are -- for the most part -- on the conservative side, which tells you all you need to know about the 2018 MVP.

I'm hammering the over on both props.