Player Props: Best NFL Quarterback Passing Yardage Bets
As Questlove puts it -- who's been spinning some amazing four-plus hour sets every night -- "we're on punishment" these days, needing to find every and all distractions to stay positive. His nightly sessions have been one such source, striking a balance between playing classic records and obscure deep cuts, all while sharing personal stories and anecdotes from throughout music history.
As one such example, Questlove did a Stevie Wonder tribute that lasted nearly seven hours, prompting the music legend himself to call Questlove and thank him mid-set. Maybe not every session will resonate with you, but the genuine love and knowledge of music shines through.
While I can't provide a service anywhere close to Questlove, I can do my small part and lead you to some of the fun wagers being offered now on FanDuel Sportsbook, which includes a wide range of NFL player props.
Last week, I highlighted some of the best running back yards totals to bet, so let's check out the quarterbacks. At -112 odds on either side, you simply pick whether a specific signal-caller will go over or under his listed number of passing yards. Teams must play a full 16-game schedule for bets to stand.
Using numberFire Editor-in-Chief JJ Zacharasian's player projections as a guide, let's see which props we should target.
Patrick Mahomes (4499.5 yards)
Last season, Patrick Mahomes couldn't duplicate his monster 2018 campaign, though some of that was due to a knee injury that hobbled him midseason and caused him to miss two games. Plus, it was always going to be difficult to produce back-to-back 5,000-yard seasons.
Still, his 4,031 passing yards ranked 10th in the NFL, and his efficiency metrics remained among the league's best. He ranked fourth in yards per attempt (8.3) and third in adjusted yards per attempt (8.9), and among quarterbacks with at least 100 passes, Mahomes placed third in numberFire's Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back and sixth in Passing Success Rate.
If we tack on the two games Mahomes missed in 2019, he was on pace to hit 4,606 yards, which would've surpassed this player prop easily. Furthermore, the Super Bowl MVP will have all his primary pass-catchers back again this season, so with better health, it wouldn't be shocking to see Mahomes compete for the league lead in passing yards.
JJ's projections back this notion, too, putting Mahomes at 4,964.7 yards -- crushing the over for this prop.
Pick: Over 4499.5 yards
Dak Prescott (4319.5 yards)
Dak Prescott is coming off a career-high 4,902 passing yards, which ranked behind only Jameis Winston in 2019. Prescott thrived with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore taking over play-calling duties, and new head coach Mike McCarthy plans to keep Moore in that role for 2020.
That's great news for Prescott, and Amari Cooper's re-signing can't be understated, as well. Cooper and Michael Gallup will once again form a formidable one-two punch, though they'll have to find a way to replace the production of slot receiver Randall Cobb. The good news is a deep wide receiver class in the NFL Draft could provide a quick and easy solution.
Prescott also benefitted from a stout offensive line last year, with Pro Football Focus ranking the Cowboys as the NFL's fourth-best group. They could take a step back with five-time Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick surprisingly announcing his retirement last month, but this should still be a plus unit overall.
As for Prescott himself, he shined in numberFire's metrics, ranking fifth in Passing NEP per drop back and third in Passing Success Rate.
Even if he takes a step back this season, we're talking about nearly a 600-yard cushion between his prop and last year's effort. JJ's projections split the difference at 4,622.2 yards, making this a pretty comfortable spot to take the over.
Pick: Over 4319.5 yards
Drew Brees (4049.5 yards)
Drew Brees may be 41 years old but playing with 2019 Offensive Player of the Year Michael Thomas as your top wideout is a pretty great way to extend your career, not to mention some guy named Alvin Kamara.
A thumb injury held Brees to 11 games, but he averaged a solid 270.8 yards per game, which would've come to 4,333 over a full season. Although Brees no longer puts up the gaudy numbers of his prime, he's incredibly efficient, as he ranked behind only Lamar Jackson in Passing NEP per drop back last season, and his Passing Success Rate was tops in the league.
Despite his age, Brees has many factors going for him. With playmakers like Thomas and Kamara at his disposal, this isn't a particularly high bar Brees has to clear, and the addition of Emmanuel Sanders won't hurt, either. Brees isn't exactly known for his mobility, so New Orleans' strong offensive line is also a significant positive -- Pro Football Focus ranked them as their fifth-best unit in 2019. We can't discount the benefits of playing home games at the Superdome, too, allowing him to avoid the elements for half his starts.
And while there might be some concern with Taysom Hill continuing to steal occasional snaps in his gadget player role, barring some dramatic rise in playing time, it doesn't figure to affect Brees much from a passing yardage perspective.
In JJ's projections, Brees is pegged for 4,379.8 yards -- right on par with last year's pace.
Pick: Over 4049.5 yards