NFL Draft Betting: Where Will Isaiah Simmons Land?

Need an elite linebacker with sideline-to-sideline speed and pass-rushing ability? Can I interest you in Isaiah Simmons?

Need a playmaking safety with unique cover skills and diagnostic abilities? Can I interest you in Isaiah Simmons?

Need a slot corner who can take on tight ends and receivers alike? Can I interest you in Isaiah Simmons?

Seriously. There's very little this guy can't do. Don't believe me? Just watch this one-minute clip.

Not sure how to react? Allow me to be of some assistance.

Clemson's star {insert position here} is one of the most unique players to come out of the draft in recent memory. If you want to know what kind of impact he can make from day one in the NFL, just look at what Minkah Fitzpatrick did with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

FanDuel Sportsbook has set Simmons' draft slot over/under at 6.5. Let's take a look at how we should bet that.

The Odds

Under 6.5 is currently the slight favorite, at -126 -- that's an implied probability of 55.7 percent. The over is listed at -102, which basically implies a 50 percent probability.

Current Projections

NFLMockDraftDatabase -- which creates a consensus mock draft from more than 300 that are posted online -- has Simmons going fourth overall to the New York Giants. That's a relatively popular projection and for good reason.

Dave Gettleman hasn't exactly been running a tight ship when it comes to the draft. Reports had him selecting Saquon Barkley long before the 2018 draft. Ditto for Daniel Jones in 2019.

However, I looked at 40 mock drafts from some of the top names in the industry -- including 15 of the most accurate mock drafters, via theHuddleReport -- and the Giants were actually not the most common prediction among the experts. That honor belonged to the Carolina Panthers, currently sitting in the seventh slot. Here are the full results.

ExpertsAverage Draft SlotProjected to CARProjected to NYG
Most Accurate Mock Drafters6.4747%33%
All Experts6.5838%25%

If you were hoping that the average projection from these experts was going to be helpful...well...enjoy the disappointment.

The Teams in the Top Six

We can rule out the Cincinnati Bengals from the conversation. Even if the Washington Redskins don't take Chase Young with the second pick, they're more likely to trade it than take Simmons at that slot.


The Detroit Lions need a corner or defensive tackle more than they need a linebacker/safety hybrid, but to completely rule them out from taking a player of Simmons' caliber would be unwise. They need an influx of talent just about everywhere.

New York

Gettleman's Giants also can't be very picky about where they look for talent. Their biggest needs for immediate contributors are on the offensive line and just about anywhere on the defensive side.

In his seven drafts as a general manager, Gettleman has had nine first-round picks. With those nine picks, he has gone defensive tackle, receiver, linebacker/safety hybrid, defensive tackle, running back, running back, quarterback, defensive tackle, and cornerback, in that order. While getting beef on his offensive front should be a top priority, he has never taken an offensive lineman prior to round two.

Luckily for Giant fans, there are no top-10 prospects at running back this year, so they can rest easy (ish). Ohio State's Chase Young makes a ton of sense, but the odds are more likely that he'll be gone by the fourth pick. The Buckeyes' Jeff Okudah would also be a great fit, but he's a popular pick among experts to land at three with the Lions. Given Gettleman's tendencies, it would not shock me if he went with Simmons or Auburn's Derrick Brown.

Five and Six

Both the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers are widely expected to select a quarterback in round one. Nevertheless, one -- or both -- of these teams might feel the need to trade up to acquire a signal-caller, which could lead to a team moving down and drafting Simmons.

The most prime trade-down candidate would be the Redskins, who, according to CBS's Jason La Canfora, have "fallen in love" with Simmons and "grown more fond" of trading back. If the Lions or Giants were to move down, they too could make Simmons their selection.

The Pick

Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Young, and Okudah are all but locks to be top-six picks. That leaves two spots for Simmons to hit the under, one of which will likely be occupied by Oregon's Justin Herbert. If that's the case, the question becomes whether Derrick Brown or one of the offensive lineman can leapfrog Simmons and push the 21-year-old out of the top six.

As of right now, I'd wager that he stands his ground and hits the under.