DraftKings Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Super Bowl LIV
One of the more unique NFL contests you can play on DraftKings is the single-game contest, where you roster six players, all from the same game. You pick one player to be your Captain, and his point total is multiplied by 1.5.
If you’re looking for one last chance to play NFL DFS this season, single-game contests will be your only option. So how should you approach them?
Patrick Mahomes ($18,900)
When it comes to single-game slates, you want to make sure you’re rostering the right captain. That’s where your lineup build starts, and it should correlate with the rest of your roster.
Patrick Mahomes is a prime candidate to be a captain for the Super Bowl. He’s dominated in both of the Chiefs’ playoff games thus far, scoring 41.14 and 35.06 DraftKings points in them. He’s averaging 307.5 passing yards and 4.0 passing touchdowns per game during that two-game stretch, which is far and above any other signal-caller in the 2020 playoffs.
He’s also been sneaky good rushing the ball in the playoffs – averaging 53.0 rushing yards and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game. Mahomes has accounted for 9 of the 12 touchdowns the Chiefs have scored in the postseason. Damien Williams has accounted for the remaining three rushing scores.
While the player pool is very limited this week, Mahomes is projected to outscore every other player (at all positions) by 9.1 DraftKings points, per our DFS projections. His average DraftKings points per game this season is also 7.2 points more than any other player in the Super Bowl.
He’ll be expensive to roster, but it’s hard to pass on Mahomes. He’ll likely be a chalk captain, but it may be worth rolling with him anyway.
George Kittle ($12,600)
From the 49ers' side, George Kittle has to be considered as a captain.
With DraftKings scoring offering one point per reception, you’ll want to be rostering players who get a lot of targets. Yes, Kittle is coming off of a Conference Championship game where he only saw one looks, but that was largely due to game script against the Green Bay Packers. The Niners got out to a big lead and ran the ball 38 times. I don’t foresee that happening against the Chiefs.
While the Niners certainly could get out to an early lead in this game, they'll need to keep their foot on the gas due to how electric Mahomes and company are.
Per PFF’s tight end matchup chart, Kittle is expected to line up against Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu is a gamer and should play Kittle tight all game, but if Kittle uses his size advantage against Mathieu, he’s going to cause problems for him. Kittle is seven inches taller than Mathieu and roughly 64 pounds heavier.
As our own Erik Smith mentioned in his FanDuel Single-Game Helper, the Chiefs’ defense has struggled at times against opposing tight ends. They have allowed a touchdown to the position in three straight games entering the Super Bowl.
Travis Kelce ($9,600)
In their first playoff game against the Houston Texans, Kelce finished with 10 receptions, 135 receiving yards and 3 touchdown receptions, while Hill had just 3 receptions for 41 receiving yards. In their second playoff game, Hill had 5 receptions, 67 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Kelce finished with 3 receptions for 30 yards.
I expect this Hill-Kelce trend to continue this week, and while either one of them could have a big game, I’m putting my money on Kelce in the Super Bowl.
Per our projections, Kelce is expected to be the second-highest scoring player in the game -- behind only Mahomes. He’s currently projected for 9.98 targets and 6.78 receptions, which is the most of any wide receiver or tight end.
Again, we’re looking for opportunity and targets on DraftKings, and nobody is projected to have more targets than Kelce this week.
Raheem Mostert ($9,400)
Just when it looked like Tevin Coleman was going to take over the Niners backfield after rushing for 105 yards and two touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings, it was Raheem Mostert who stepped up big in the Conference Championship game.
Saying he stepped up “big” may actually be an understatement, as he ran for 220 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. He looked untouchable, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt against the Packers.
With Coleman suffering a shoulder injury in the Conference Championship game and Matt Breida failing to reach 20 yards in each of his last five outings, the Niners’ backfield looks to be Mostert’s now more than ever.
He’s projected for 16.47 rushing attempts this week, per our models, which is 11.65 more attempts than the next Niner running back. He also leads all running backs, wide receivers and tight ends with a 0.73 touchdown projection. He’s the best bet to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl.
Jimmy Garoppolo ($8,000)
If you expect the Chiefs to get the lead early in this game, then it makes sense to hop on the Niners' passing game. That isn’t something the Niners have had to deal with so far in the 2020 playoffs, but there is a good chance that happens against the Chiefs.
Jimmy Garoppolo is being priced as the seventh-highest player in the Super Bowl, and it’s rare for a quarterback to be at a salary that low. It makes sense considering the Niners have dominated rushing the ball thus far in the playoffs, and Garoppolo has only had 27 combined pass attempts in two games.
That being said, numberFire currently has Garoppolo projected for 32.41 pass attempts in the Super Bowl. With that amount of opportunity, Garoppolo is offering the second-best point-per-dollar value of any starter playing this week, per our models.
At his price tag, you’ll be able to create lineups with both him and Mahomes. Per PFF’s DraftKings Showdown metrics, almost 50% of single-game top-five optimal lineups have two quarterbacks rostered -- based on a 100-game matchup simulation. That makes Garoppolo an extremely interesting flex play.
Mecole Hardman ($2,200)
If you’re looking for a cheaper guy to roster, look no further than Mecole Hardman.
Hardman is an explosive receiver with incredible speed who has the chance to score a touchdown on any given play. Of the six offensive touchdowns he scored in the regular season, four of them were from at least 42 yards out. His other two touchdowns were scored at 21 yards and 30 yards.
He might not be on the field for every single offensive play in the Super Bowl. Heck, he may not even be on the field for half of the Chiefs’ offensive plays. However, it was reassuring to see him out-snap Demarcus Robinson in the Conference Championship game, showing that he may have jumped Robinson in the pecking order.
Being that his speed is such a threat, he’s also used in the return game. During the regular season, he had 27 kickoff returns and 18 punt returns -- turning one of those kickoff returns into a 104-yard touchdown. In his first two playoff games, he’s seen 10 kickoff returns and 2 punt returns.
With Hardman at this price, one big-play touchdown from him could swing the entire slate, and he’s certainly capable of doing that at any point in any game.
Griffin Swanson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Griffin Swanson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username GriffDogg_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. (edited)