4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 17
On the Week 17 FanDuel main slate, there are eight games projected for an over/under of 45 points or more, and it should be a relatively high scoring week across the league. There are also nine teams projected to score at least 24-points this week, which should lead to some high scoring players.
This week presents a unique slate of games as there are a handful of teams who are still fighting for a playoff spot or looking to move up to a higher playoff seed, while a handful of other teams will be sitting their starters for rest – whether that be injury related or looking to rest for playoffs. I’ll be featuring teams in this article who plan on playing their starters.
In this article, I will reflect my favorite DFS stacks for this week. These decisions are made by using player projections, Vegas implied team totals and player ownership projections.
Green Bay Packers
The first team I’ll be targeting this week is the Green Bay Packers. While they are currently in the position to hold the 2 seed in the NFC playoffs, they need to win this week to ensure they lock up a first-round bye. Should the Packers lose and the New Orleans Saints win their game against the Carolina Panthers, then the Packers will miss out on a bye. Needless to say, they have something to play for this week.
I like stacking Aaron Jones with the Packers' defense in this matchup. Jones and the Green Bay offense should have a field day against the Lions defense, which currently ranks 28th overall, per our schedule-adjusted metrics. They’ve allowed 25.8 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs this season, which ranks as the third most across the league.
Jones is coming off a game against a stout Minnesota Vikings rushing defense in which he had 23 rushing attempts, 154 yards and two touchdowns – this was a season high in rushing attempts and rushing yards for Jones.
Pairing Jones with the Packers' defense makes a lot of sense. The Lions are implied to score just 15.25 points, the second fewest on the main slate. They’ll get to face David Blough, who has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes in his first four games as a starting quarterback.
The Dallas Cowboys' playoff path is simple – they need to win this week against Washington, and they need the Philadelphia Eagles to lose to the New York Giants. If both of those things happen, the Cowboys will win the NFC East.
Thankfully for us in DFS, the Cowboys and Eagles play at 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday, ensuring both teams will play their starters.
For the Cowboys, I like using Dak Prescott with Amari Cooper. These two haven’t seemed to be on the same page over the past few weeks but have a great matchup to get back on track. Per our numbers, Washington currently ranks as the 29th overall pass defense, and they’re also allowing 25.9 points per game, which ranks as the ninth most across the league.
The last time these two teams played was back in Week 2, when the Cowboys won by a score of 31-21. Prescott completed 86.7% of his passes in that game while throwing for 269 yards and three touchdowns. He also rushed the ball five times for 69 rushing yards.
Per our projections, Prescott is expected to have another good game against this Washington D. He’s currently projected to be the second-highest scoring quarterback on the main slate.
Stack Prescott with Cooper in this game. In said Week 2 battle, Cooper finished the game with four receptions, 44 receiving yards and one touchdown. While that wasn’t his best performance of the season, the wideout had a very efficient game on the road – which hasn’t always been the case for Cooper.
Cooper’s home/road splits since entering the NFL have been very different. He’s notoriously played better at home, and that trend has continued again this season. In 15 games this year, Cooper has played eight games on the road while suiting up seven times at home. In his seven home games, Cooper has 21 more receptions, 457 more receiving yards and two more receiving touchdowns, compared to his stats playing on the road -- all while playing one fewer game at home.
While his home/road splits are always intriguing, so is Cooper’s matchup this week. Per PFF’s wide receiver/cornerback matchup chart, Cooper is expected to be lined up against Redskins’ cornerback Aaron Colvin in this game. Cooper currently has a 30% advantage over Colvin, which ranks as the third best wide receiver/cornerback matchup in Week 17.
While the Denver Broncos are not fighting for a playoff spot this week, I do expect them to continue building their game around rookie quarterback Drew Lock. While he started the season injured, Lock has played some pretty good football in his first four starts as an NFL quarterback since getting healthy. He’s won three of his first four starts while throwing six passing touchdowns in his three wins.
He has a chance to add another win to his rookie resume this week against the Oakland Raiders. The Broncos are currently favored to win this game by 3.5 points and should emphasize their passing game for two main reasons. First, the Broncos likely want to continue getting Lock game reps, and second, the Raiders' passing defense has been abysmal this season – ranking 30th overall, per our scheduled-adjusted metrics.
Only three teams have allowed more FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks than the Raiders have this year, and we expect Lock to take advantage of that. We have Lock projected to score 16.5 FanDuel points this week, the 10th most of any quarterback on the main slate. He is, however, being priced as the 24th-most expensive passer, allowing for you to get him at a bargain price.
One of the most impressive sophomore breakouts this year has been Courtland Sutton. He cracked the 1,000-yard mark last week, doing so on just 68 receptions. Only five other receivers/tight ends reached that mark with fewer receptions this season.
The last time these two teams played was back in Week 1, when Sutton finished the game with seven receptions and 120 receiving yards. He has another great matchup this week to replicate or go beyond those numbers. Per PFF’s wide receiver/cornerback matchup chart, Sutton is expected to face Raiders’ cornerback Trayvon Mullen. Sutton has a 19% advantage in this matchup, which ranks as the 15th best matchup in Week 17.
We have Sutton ranked within the top-10 among receivers in receptions, yards, touchdowns and targets this week. I expect him to finish his second-year breakout with a bang.
The Tennessee Titans' route to playoffs is simple – if they win, they're in.
I initially had this as a game stack but pulled back as there is a lot of uncertainty as to what the Houston Texans will do with their starters this week. Should the Kansas City Chiefs lose to the Los Angeles Chargers in their 1 p.m. EST game on Sunday, I expect the Texans to play their starters to try and lock in the 3 seed in the AFC playoffs -- as they don’t play until 4:25 p.m. EST.
It’s been well documented how Ryan Tannehill has not only turned his career around this season, but also how he’s been able to turn around the Titans’ season, as well. He has completed more than 70% of his passes this year while averaging 254.4 passing yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns per game. He has a chance to add to those numbers this week against a Texans’ defense that has been subpar at covering the pass -- only four teams have allowed more FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks in 2019.
The Texans and Titans actually just played two weeks ago. The Titans lost that game by a score of 24-21, but Tannehill played rather well. He finished the game with 279 passing yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for a touchdown, too. He finished the game with 25.16 FanDuel points. With playoff implications on the line, Tannehill should be locked in.
I like stacking Tannehill with A.J. Brown. Brown has had a great rookie year, particularly during the second half of this season. In just his last three games, Brown has racked up 22 receptions, 301 receiving yards and four touchdowns. He’s also run the ball twice for 62 yards.
Back in Week 15, when the Titans played the Texans, Brown finished the game with eight receptions, 114 receiving yards and one touchdown. He’s set to face Texans’ cornerback Gareon Conley again in this game and has a 16% matchup advantage over Conley.
Brown is currently projected to be the eighth highest scoring wide receiver in Week 17, according to our models. He’s slated to see 7.18 targets, but with the opportunity to win and be in the 2019-20 playoffs, I foresee his targets being closer to double digits. The Titans should look to feed their best players, and Brown has certainly made a name for himself as one of the Titans best playmakers.
Should the Texans sit their starters in this game, Brown and Tannehill could each go well beyond what they're currently projected for. Keep an eye on that.
Griffin Swanson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Griffin Swanson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username GriffDogg_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. (edited)