FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 11
Welcome to our weekly FanDuel daily fantasy football helper, where we give you an overview of the Sunday main slate to help you get started on your research. As always, we recommend checking out all of numberFire's premium tools at your disposal. In particular, the heat map is a great way to get a general overview of the slate's implied totals, and every team's strengths and weaknesses. You also have access to numberFire's weekly projections, which can assist you in nailing down who might be the slate's top scorers and best values.
Now, let's run through some of this week's top plays on the FanDuel main slate.
Lamar Jackson ($8,800 on FanDuel): This is a pretty wide open week at quarterback, but Lamar Jackson still projects as the both the position's top scorer and best point-per-dollar value -- even as the slate's most-expensive signal caller. He's averaging just under 27 FanDuel points per game -- an average bested by only Christian McCaffrey -- dropping below 20 only once all season. A slate-high 51.5 over/under against Houston suggests a potential shootout against Deshaun Watson ($8,200) -- a strong play in his own right -- which only further enhances the appeal of rostering Jackson this week.
Jameis Winston ($7,600): Regularly finding himself in shootouts due to Tampa Bay's poor defense and his own tendency to turn the ball over, Jameis Winston has now thrown for over 300 yards in six of the last seven games, eclipsing 17 FanDuel points in all seven over that span. Through sheer volume, Winston continues to demonstrate a high fantasy output in spite of his league-leading 14 interceptions, and yet another back-and-forth affair should be upcoming against the Saints (49.5 over/under). The Saints don't necessarily make for the easiest defensive matchup, but we've seen Winston come through in tough spots, and it can't hurt that defensive back Marshon Lattimore may be out this week. On the other side, this is also a bounce-back spot for Drew Brees ($8,300) against a Bucs defense that's allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks.
Derek Carr ($7,400): Of all teams, it's the Raiders who have the slate's highest implied total (30.00) as 11.5-point home favorites over the winless Bengals. Although Derek Carr has technically only exceeded 20 FanDuel points once this season, even he has upside against a pass defense that ranks 31st in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play and 30th in adjusted sack rate. Cincinnati has given up the third-most FanDuel points per game to opposing signal callers.
Christian McCaffrey ($10,500): No one is averaging more FanDuel points per game than Christian McCaffrey (27.61), and he's gone below 19 only once in nine games. Much like Lamar Jackson, the floor-ceiling combination is ridiculous, and while the restrictive price tag is making it tougher to squeeze McCaffrey in there every week, he's projected for the most FanDuel points of the slate. In another game with shootout upside versus Atlanta (49.5 over/under), McCaffrey should be plenty busy as usual.
Dalvin Cook ($8,600): McCaffrey may be projected for the most raw points, but Dalvin Cook is the top point-per-dollar play at the position. Cook is averaging just over 20 carries per game this year and has seen at least 6 targets in three straight. The Broncos may be a neutral matchup, but volume and a likely positive game script will more than make up for that. The Vikings are 10.5-point home favorites and are one of just three teams that run more often than they pass.
Leonard Fournette ($7,200): Leonard Fournette is averaging 25 opportunities per game (19.3 rushes and 5.7 targets per game) with an 88.9% snap rate -- elite volume at a non-elite price. A mere one touchdown across nine games is baffling for someone getting this kind of volume, but he's a strong positive regression candidate the rest of the way. A road date with Indianapolis is nothing to shy away from -- the Colts rank 20th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play.
Brian Hill ($5,900): Devonta Freeman has been ruled out this week, so Brian Hill is expected to be the lead back against Carolina. Without knowing the full extent of Hill's workload, we probably don't want to go too overboard with expectations, but there's definitely the possibility of a three-down role after last week's promising usage. With Freeman missing the entire second half, Hill would finish with 20 rushes and a pair of targets over 50.6% of the snaps, with no other back playing a significant role. However, Kenjon Barner and Qadree Ollison still loom as guys who could steal work after a week of preparation, and a negative game script could also factor in as road underdogs. Still, the upside is enticing against a Carolina defense that ranks dead last in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play.
Michael Thomas ($9,000): Much like Lamar Jackson and Christian McCaffrey at their respective positions, Michael Thomas is pretty much on an island among wideouts, easily projected for the most raw fantasy points while still coming in as the second-best point-per-dollar value despite his salary. He owns a 32.4% target share and 39.1% air yards share for the season and has seen at least 11 targets in five straight games. Tampa Bay has allowed the most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers.
Julio Jones ($7,800) and Calvin Ridley ($5,500): With Mohamed Sanu traded away a few weeks back and now both Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman ruled out with injuries, the competition for targets on the Falcons has narrowed quite a bit, leading to more potential looks for both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley in a possible shootout against Carolina. Julio has seen a solid 25.0% target share and 41.9% air yards share in the two games without Sanu and could easily be a true target hog this week -- he's projected for the third-most fantasy points at the position. Ridley hasn't taken advantage of his increased role post-Sanu, but he still projects as the top point-per-dollar wide receiver.
D.J. Moore ($6,000): D.J. Moore has emerged as Kyle Allen's top target, leading the team with a 29.1% target share and 37.6% air yards share over the last five games. The Falcons rank 30th in schedule-adjusted pass defense and 32nd in Target Success Rate allowed to wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel ($5,600): With both George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders ailing for San Francisco, it's possible that Deebo Samuel will be Jimmy Garoppolo's top pass-catcher against Arizona. With Sanders going down early on Monday night (and Kittle out), Samuel would lead the team with 11 targets, and he saw 7 with everyone active the week prior. The Cardinals are numberFire's 29th-ranked pass defense, and they're 30th in Target Success Rate allowed to opposing wideouts.
Mark Andrews ($6,900): It's slim pickings at tight end as usual (especially with Kittle expected out), but Mark Andrews projects as the top play in terms of both raw points and point-per-dollar value. Andrews has seen pretty consistent volume all season, receiving at least seven targets in eight of nine games, and Lamar Jackson might be forced to air it out more this week if the Texans hold up their end of the bargain. Additionally, Darren Waller ($6,700) is in a fantastic spot against Cincinnati, who allowed two scores to Andrews last week and ranks 32nd in Target Success Rate given up to tight ends.
Greg Olsen ($5,100): If you're looking to pay down, Greg Olsen is a cheap way to get exposure to the Atlanta-Carolina matchup. numberFire's projections like him as the top value tight end priced under $6k, and Olsen is averaging just over six targets per game this year.
Minnesota D/ST ($4,700): With Brandon Allen making just his second career NFL start, the Broncos have a truly pitiful 15.00 implied total in Minnesota this week. While Allen actually got by okay in his first start versus Cleveland, the Vikings will be a much tougher test, ranking eighth in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play and fourth in adjusted sack rate. Minnesota is projected as the top-scoring defense this week.
Washington D/ST ($4,000): Washington's defense isn't anything special, so this could certainly backfire, but they're hosting the Jets, a team that's been awfully generous to opposing defenses this year with an offensive line that ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate. Washington checks in as the top point-per-dollar defense in this week's projections.