DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 11
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The purpose of this article is not only to help you understand some of the more popular plays on the slate, but also to highlight some overlooked ones that pop in our projection models and might go otherwise overlooked on Sunday. There's usually even more clarity provided to the context of the slate on Saturday night and Sunday morning. But, overall, many of the main decision points become clear by Thursday afternoon and Friday evening, giving you ample time Saturday to build your lineups with useful information. With all that being said, let's dive in to what looks good for Week 11.
Lamar Jackson ($7,700): Lamar has been on an absolute tear recently as he ramps up his bid for MVP. You'd have to be living under a rock not to know what he's been accomplishing on the field the last few games, but in case you need a refresher, he's averaging 30.5 DraftKings points per game over his last four contests. A significant portion of that comes from his rushing stats as he's averaging 14 carries for 98.5 yards per game over the last four. Now he gets a Houston Texans defense that has allowed the eighth most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks over the last four weeks and has lost some key players (J.J. Watt) to injury. We typically like favored running backs at home with high team totals to plug into our DraftKings lineups, and Lamar is basically that with a "QB" designation in front of his name. If you're paying up at quarterback this week, with no Patrick Mahomes on the main slate, you're landing here.
Dak Prescott ($6,700): Dak has been solid over the last three weeks, posting totals of 22, 22, and 30 DraftKings points in that span for an average of 24.6. Each of those scores achieved greater than 3x value at their respective prices, and now, in Week 11, Dak draws another layup matchup versus a Detroit Lions defense that has allowed an average of 25.9 DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Even with a full complement of receiving weapons in Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb, and, yes, old man Jason Witten as his wubby safety blanket, Dak might go under-owned as players may look to pounce on Zeke's smash spot, overlooking the passing game. But this game total is up there at 50.5 in some spots, per oddsFire, and if Matthew Stafford plays, these two offenses definitely have the ability to keep up with each other and turn this tilt into a shootout.
Kyle Allen ($5,300): If you're paying down at quarterback this week, Kyle Allen provides a terrific combo of excellent matchup and solid offensive weapons. Obviously, we know his pass-catching running back is #good. But his receivers have also really started to come on recently. D.J. Moore has posted double-digit targets in three of the past four weeks. Curtis Samuel, though under-performing, typically provides safe floor with immense upside, and Greg Olsen is the steady Eddie that keeps drives alive by picking up first downs. As far as matchup goes, don't buy the fluke of a stellar performance from the Atlanta Falcons' defense from last week. They're still averaging the fifth most DraftKings points allowed to opposing quarterbacks (23.7 DKP/game). The spot sets up nicely for Allen to hit value for your cash games.
Ezekiel Elliott ($9,000): If you aren't paying all the way up for Christian McCaffrey at $10,500 this week -- and you need to find a lot of value to do so -- Zeke offers a $1,500 discount in a smash spot. The Lions have been absolutely horrible this season against opposing running backs, allowing 32 DraftKings Points per game to the position, which is the second most. Zeke is hogging snaps in the backfield at an average rate of 89.8% since Week 4, and with Dallas favored, he should get fed. After getting constantly stacked up against a Minnesota Vikings defense that sold out to stop him last week, Zeke is primed for a bounce-back performance in a dream matchup.
Josh Jacobs ($6,900): A similarly awful defense against the run this season belongs to the Cincinnati Bengals. They're allowing 116.4 rushing yards and 48.4 receiving yards per game (164.8 total average scrimmage yards) to opposing running backs. The Oakland Raiders enter this spot with a quietly outstanding offensive line that ranks fourth in Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards. And Jacobs' volume and efficiency numbers are sneaky good: 86.3% positive run rate, 20.2 touches per game, and a 16.7% broken tackle rate. He's accounted for 27.7% of Raiders' total rushing and receiving yards this season, and 25.9% of the team's touchdowns. Against the 29th ranked defense, per our schedule-adjusted metrics, Jacobs is set up for a very nice afternoon.
Brian Hill ($4,800): If you aren't familiar with Brian Hill's skill set, here's a little rundown of his workout metrics and college production: he runs a 4.54 40-yard dash (67th percentile for running backs), has a speed score of 103.1 (73rd percentile), and posted a college dominator rating of 34.2% (79th percentile), per PlayerProfiler.com. The Falcons were already down Ito Smith, who was placed on injured reserve earlier in the season, and will more than likely be without Devonta Freeman this weekend as Freeman is doubtful with a foot injury. The opportunity should be there for Hill, and he also gets set up with a nice matchup versus the Carolina Panthers' league-worst rush defense. He projects as the number-one point-per-dollar value at running back, per our models, and will likely be mega-chalk in cash games. For tournaments, though, much thought will be needed as to whether or not fade him.
Michael Thomas ($9,900): DraftKings has elevated Michael Thomas' salary to account for his volume, matchup, and overall studliness. It's hard to see a scenario that Thomas fails here, though. He's scored at least 25 DraftKings points in each of his last three games and will face a pass-funnel defense against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints are throwing on 61% of their pass plays this season, and opponents have thrown on 64% of plays against the Bucs as Tampa has allowed a league-low 700 rushing yards over the season. It would be hard to project MT for less than 10 targets in this spot (in fact we have him projected at 11), and with his typical off-the-charts catch rate of 84%, we have him penciled in for a reception floor of 8.4. With his team's implied total at almost four touchdowns, per FanDuel Sportsbook, there's solid touchdown equity to go along with his receptions floor.
D.J. Moore ($5,900): If you're looking to pair up a wide receiver with your cheap quarterback in Kyle Allen this week, look no further than underpriced D.J. Moore. For whatever reason, DraftKings has been slow to price up all of the Panthers players not named Christian McCaffrey. But Moore is averaging double-digit targets over the past four weeks and has eclipsed the 100-yard mark in the last two. The touchdowns have been absent, though, and there's certainly some room for positive touchdown regression. Not to mention that Atlanta has allowed the seventh most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers this season. He makes an excellent value stack with Kyle Allen this week, and he elevates your cash team's floor substantially with his volume.
Terry McLaurin ($5,600): This is definitely more of a tournament play than a cash play, but the matchup is just so sweet for F1 that it's worth mentioning here. His last three games have been disappointing, with DraftKings point total of only 2, 8, and 8. But he's had some quarterback volatility in the past month with his coaches switching back and forth between Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins, and his defensive matchups haven't been great either (San Francisco, Minnesota, and Buffalo the past three weeks). But with a week off to rekindle chemistry with Haskins, his college quarterback, and a dream matchup against the New York Jets, who are allowing the second most DraftKings points to opposing receivers this season, McLaurin is in a great spot and should be lower-owned due to his recent poor outings.
Deebo Samuel ($4,000): Samuel fell "victim" to the pre-Monday DraftKings pricing this week, and he's in a prime spot for us to take full advantage. Injuries have started to plague the 49ers, with key offensive pieces like Matt Breida, Emmanuel Sanders, and George Kittle all looking doubtful for Sunday. Enter Deebo, who commanded 25% of the team's targets in their Monday night loss to the Seattle Seahawks. A 25% target share against an Arizona Cardinals team that is top 10 in points allowed to opposing wide receivers should result in easy value for an underpriced Samuel, who may also avoid a shadow from Patrick Peterson, who is nursing a calf injury and is questionable for Sunday. Deebo provides excellent value this week to jam in those high-priced running back and wide receiver studs.
Darren Waller ($5,500): Tight end might wind up being a pay-up-to-be-contrarian spot this week, and Waller could go under-owned due to his declining performance over the past few weeks. But while his most recent opponents have had the talent to scheme for him, Cincinnati seems poorly equipped to do the same. They were just gashed by Mark Andrews last week for 23 DraftKings points, and now have to travel to the Black Hole to face a surging Raiders team. Waller is in a superb bounce-back spot and should provide leverage in tournaments.
Ryan Griffin ($2,900): The Jets sent Chris Herndon to IR this week, opening up a path for Ryan Griffin to re-establish himself as the the TE1 in this offense. Before Herndon's return in Week 10, Griffin had achieved DraftKings point totals of 25 in Week 8 and 11 in Week 9. Obviously, either of these totals at his current price would achieve value, and I think we can expect more of the same with his path to opportunity opening up due to injury. He's my favorite punt tight end play of the week and someone who will help us get up to the studs.
New Orleans D/ST ($2,900): The Saints got embarrassed last week. In a game at home against a terrible 1-7 Falcons team, they laid a gigantic egg. But they have a get-right spot against a turnover-prone Tampa Bay team that is averaging 2.3 interceptions and 1.5 fumbles per game over the last four weeks. Tampa Bay's offensive line ranks 24th in Football Outsiders adjusted sack rate, while New Orleans defensive line ranks 8th. Tampa's offense could put up points and still hand New Orleans a couple turnovers.
Arizona D/ST ($1,500): Of course, anytime we get down to these low levels of salary, they're considered punt plays. But think of the opposing offense the Cardinals are going against this week. As highlighted earlier in the article, the 49ers are down three of their major offensive pieces as well as a key guy on their offensive line in Joe Staley, who had to have surgery to repair a broken finger. Arizona is in the middle of the pack in adjusted sack rate, and they may be able to take advantage of the discontinuity caused by the Staley injury. Not to mention they already have a blueprint for how San Francisco wants to play offense after their game against them just two weeks ago. If all we need is four or five points from this defense to hit value, it's certainly achievable given the matchup.