The 20 Best Offensive Players From Week 10
As you know, we like math here at numberFire. Our algorithms help tell a better story about sports -- they're able to dig through the nonsense, helping us look at things that matter on the court, field or rink.
With football, we love our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which measures the number of points a player adds (or loses) to his team versus what he's expected to add. Rather than counting statistics like yards, touchdowns and receptions, NEP looks at down-and-distance situations and field position and relates these instances to history. When a player outperforms what's happened in the past, he sees a positive expected points value on the play. When he doesn't, his expected points value gained on the play is negative. All of these little instances add up, then, to be a player's Net Expected Points total.
You can read more about NEP in our glossary.
Using a formula that compares individual single-game performance to history, the numberFire Live platform takes this Net Expected Points formula and assigns a rating to a player's performance. Each week, that's what we'll show here -- the 20 best ratings.
Here are Week 10's results:
| Player | Position | Passing NEP |
Rushing NEP |
Reception NEP |
Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | WR | — | -0.48 | 17.05 | 100 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | — | 11.14 | -0.65 | 99 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 23.64 | 3.40 | — | 99 |
| Amari Cooper | WR | — | — | 14.51 | 98 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | — | — | 14.24 | 98 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 24.59 | — | — | 98 |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | — | 2.88 | 5.76 | 97 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | — | 8.40 | — | 97 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 22.17 | — | — | 96 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | — | 5.19 | 1.53 | 93 |
| Darius Slayton | WR | — | — | 14.50 | 92 |
| Randall Cobb | WR | -0.51 | — | 12.16 | 92 |
| D.J. Moore | WR | — | — | 10.75 | 88 |
| Joe Mixon | RB | — | 2.48 | 2.97 | 88 |
| Davante Adams | WR | — | — | 10.34 | 85 |
| Golden Tate | WR | — | — | 7.30 | 84 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | — | 3.44 | 1.05 | 82 |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | 12.54 | 0.05 | — | 82 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | — | — | 9.55 | 80 |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | — | — | 9.34 | 79 |
- Tyreek Hill churned out 157 yards on 19 targets (a single-game high this season) in a losing effort against the Tennessee Titans. He had 8 targets at least 16 yards downfield, also the most of any player in a single game this season. His 17.05 Reception NEP ranked him 10th best for a game on the year.
- Derrick Henry's big day on the other side of that game led to a loss for Hill and the Kansas City Chiefs. Henry generated 188 rushing yards and a pair of scores on 23 carries. He also had two targets -- but lost expected points on them. No back has had more single-game Rushing NEP (11.14) than Henry did in Week 10.
- Lamar Jackson earned 23.64 Passing NEP on just 17 attempts while taking no sacks. That led to 1.39 expected points on the scoreboard on a per-play basis for him. He also ran for 65 yards and a touchdown on 7 rushes.
- Amari Cooper had a slick grab or two on Sunday night en route to 14.51 Reception NEP against the Minnesota Vikings. Cooper totaled 147 yards with a touchdown on 14 targets.
- Christian Kirk scored 3 times and was active all day on his 10 targets (138 yards on 6 catches). His 2.37 Reception NEP per catch rates out fifth-best among all games with at least 5 catches this season.
