FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Afternoon-Slate Helper: Week 4
The Week 4 afternoon NFL DFS slate on FanDuel features four matchups, which start between 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. EST. Two games have a total under 40 while none are above 50, so this is shaping up to be a low-scoring slate.
Our NFL DFS Matchup Heat Map will be referenced for all implied totals and spreads throughout this article, so be sure to check it out.
Let’s check out the best plays at various prices on this short slate.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks ($7,800)
As the Arizona Cardinals continue to play at the fastest pace in the NFL, their opponents continue to get a bump in snaps, as well. Russell Wilson has thrown the ball 85 times over the last two games, a figure that could get inflated even more in Week 4. Given that Arizona ranks 25th in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, Wilson could see incredible efficiency on top of the volume.
Your weekly dose of Russell Wilson pic.twitter.com/eiwS3ymCz0
— new-age analytical (@benbbaldwin) September 24, 2019
Our models have Wilson projected for the highest fantasy point total and point-per-dollar among all quarterbacks on this slate. He will likely be a high-owned option this week, so a pivot to his opponent, Kyler Murray, could be an excellent option, as well.
Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings ($8,300)
The Minnesota Vikings want to play through Dalvin Cook, and rightfully so. His 0.33 Rushing NEP per carry is miles ahead of Kirk Cousins' 0.13 Passing NEP per drop back. He has a brutal matchup with the Chicago Bears, who rank third in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, but this shouldn't deter fantasy gamers from firing up Cook. Cook has over 100 yards and a score in each of the first three games and has also topped 30 receiving yards in two of those games.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,100)
Mike Evans predictably crushed the New York Giants in an ideal bounce-back spot last week. That reset the pricing of the Tampa Bay receivers, as Chris Godwin is now $600 cheaper than his teammate. This means we should be pivoting back to Godwin, as Evans will be contending on the perimeter with the duo of Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters. Those two limited Odell Beckham to just 56 yards in Week 3.
Godwin will be operating in a much easier slot matchup with Nickell Robey. The Los Angeles Rams have a guy named Aaron Donald, who is pretty good at rushing the passer, so Jameis Winston will need to be throwing quickly to Godwin in the slot -- like the first few weeks of the season. Just be sure Godwin (hip) is healthy.
Mid-Priced Upside Plays
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals ($6,800)
David Johnson is averaging a measly 3.7 yards per carry despite seeing a light box on 63.9 percent of his runs, per PlayerProfiler. The main issue is that he isn't breaking tackles and converting his attempts into long runs. Johnson is 224 pounds and has a 91st-percentile speed score, so the big plays will come.
Kamara wasn't going down.
Kamara wasn't going out of bounds.
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 22, 2019
The Seahawks just allowed Alvin Kamara to evade 15 tackles in Week 3, meaning DJ could be breaking some big plays sooner rather than later. Our models have Johnson projected for the highest fantasy point total and point-per-dollar value among running backs.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks ($6,600)
While Wilson will be benefiting from inflated pass attempts, his top option in the passing game obviously gets a bump, too. After setting a career-high in targets and receptions in Week 2, Tyler Lockett did it again in Week 3, hauling in 11 of 14 looks. He has a chance at having another career game against this Cardinals' secondary, which is still without its top two cornerbacks.
Bargain Bin Prospects
Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($5,900)
As Kyler Murray attempts more than 50 passes a game (first in the NFL), his receivers are each seeing more than 10 targets a game. This makes them high-floor assets with the chance at posting boom weeks often. Christian Kirk has the best chance at this in Week 4, as his 118 yards after the catch are 46 more than Larry Fitzgerald's. Fitzgerald has simply caught two touchdowns to Kirk's none.
Our projections have Kirk as the best point-per-dollar receiver on the afternoon slate. Keep buying his volume, and the touchdowns will come.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos ($5,500)
As Jalen Ramsey missed practice with the flu and numerous injuries, he is now expected to be away from the team for the birth of his second child. This is great news for Emmanuel Sanders, who saw just four looks last week after getting 20 targets over the first two weeks. The Jaguars rank 18th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play with their All-Pro cornerback, so without Ramsey, the veteran receiver could feast.
Emmanuel Sanders' full quote: pic.twitter.com/S6uoK0UR7b
— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) September 22, 2019
Will Dissly, TE, Seattle Seahawks ($5,400)
Will Dissly has hauled in three scores over the last two weeks while playing just over half the snaps. Now that Nick Vannett was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Dissly's snap share could skyrocket. As an every-down player, he should see more targets in all areas of the field.
The Cardinals are giving up the most fantasy points to tight ends this season by a significant margin. All these positive signals will likely make Dissly the chalk as the cheap tight end option, but it will be hard to fade him on such a short slate with no better options.
Jonathan Taylor Smith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice Jonathan Taylor Smith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jtsmittyyy. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.