3 NFL Prop Bets to Target for Wild Card Weekend
With season-long leagues in the books, fantasy enthusiasts can stay involved in the NFL action through the FanDuel SportsBook. FanDuel provides a variety of lines, player props, and parlays, allowing people to showcase their knowledge.
Player props closely mirror the game of fantasy football, allowing people to stay involved in a familiar way. With playoff action upon us, here are a few standout player props.
Andrew Luck Over 300 Passing Yards / Colts Win +270
Leading off with a prop and team parlay, Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts' passing game finds themselves in a solid matchup against the Houston Texans. A $100 bet on Luck eclipsing 300 passing yards and the Colts winning outright nets $270 if successful.
Looking at the Colts from a team perspective, they enter a road contest against the division rival Texans as 1.0-point underdogs. Meeting twice already this campaign, these teams split the season series, 1-1. However, the Colts secured the most recent contest -- which was in Houston -- and a few signs point toward a repeat performance.
Entering the week, the Texans opened as 2.5-point favorites. Throughout the week, only 50% of the betting tickets have favored the Texans, per Sports Insights. However, the line has dropped down to 1-point. This movement indicates potential sharp action or bookmaker favor on the Colts' side of the line, boding well for their overall performance this weekend. Looking at the same data, a massive 63% of tickets have also favored the Colts' moneyline.
As for Luck, FanDuel set his individual player prop at 298.5 yards. This coincides directly with our projections, which have Luck slated for 299.91 passing yards. Looking back to their two previous matchups, Luck ethered the Texans for 464 and 399 passing yards. Ranking 22nd in pass defense with the league's best run D, per our schedule-adjusted metrics, the Texans have a pass-funnel defense, and their secondary has allowed the most passing yards (1,230) in the NFL over the last four weeks. With the highest game total of the weekend (48.5 points), Luck looks set up for a monster performance on Saturday.
With some of the best value on the entire card, a bet on both Luck and the Colts looks like a good proposition this weekend.
Chris Carson Over 73.5 Rushing Yards -108
Hitting the Saturday primetime game, a $100 bet on Chris Carson besting 73.5 rushing yards nets $92.59.
Working in Carson's favor is that the entire Seattle Seahawks' offense remains predicated on the run. This unit has run the ball more frequently than any other team in football, with Carson leading that attack. In his last four games, Carson has averaged 22.5 carries per outing, besting 90 yards in each of those contests. Our models currently project Carson for 16.77 carries and 78.46 rushing yards, giving him almost 5 full yards of value on his player prop.
Carson also has the benefit of facing a Dallas defense that has shown cracks recently. While they rank third in overall rush defense, per our metrics, over the past three weeks, they have allowed Saquon Barkley and Marlon Mack to eclipse 100 yards rushing.
Even as 2.5-point underdogs, the Seahawks project to lean on the run. Barring injury or Seattle getting in a big hole early, this game sets up well for Carson to hit his rushing yards prop.
Keenan Allen Over 78.5 Receiving Yards -108
While the Baltimore Ravens have limited opposing offenses recently due to a clock-killing run game on offense and a strong overall defense, Keenan Allen remains worth betting on in the Los Angeles Chargers' offense. A $100 bet on Allen eclipsing 78.5 receiving yards nets $92.59.
In his last four healthy games, Allen has averaged 10.75 targets per game, racking up 382 air yards in that span. Our projections have Allen slated for 5.97 receptions and 83.91 receiving yards, giving him slightly more than 5 yards of value on his receiving prop.
Allen does face a fierce Ravens defense that ranks first against the pass, per our metrics. However, the Ravens have showed vulnerability to slot receivers recently, including a 102-yard performance from Jarvis Landry last week. Allen has run over 70% of his routes from the slot this season, creating an avenue for fantasy success.
With the Chargers 3.0-point underdogs, negative game script could leave Philip Rivers slinging the rock Allen's way. With an uncharacteristically low player prop, Allen is a strong target on this card.