3 NFL Prop Bets to Target in Week 15
With seasonal leagues winding down, fantasy enthusiasts can stay involved in the NFL action through the FanDuel SportsBook. FanDuel provides a variety of lines, player props, and parlays, allowing people to showcase their knowledge.
Player props in particular closely mirror the game of fantasy football, allowing people to stay involved in a familiar way. With playoff implications in a slew of games this weekend, here are a few standout player props.
Nick Chubb Over 72.5 Rushing Yards -108
Despite his carry counts dipping of late, Chubb still averages 17.5 carries over his last four games. More importantly, Chubb has handled 91% of Cleveland's running back carries in that span.
Looking at the matchup, the Broncos have struggled on the defensive side of the ball, particularly after losing Chris Harris. Denver's run defense ranks a solid 12th, per our schedule-adjusted metrics, but they have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to backs this season (1,418).
With Denver favored by only 2.5 points, bookmakers believe the Browns will keep this game close, boding well for Chubb's projected workload. Our projections have Chubb slated for 16.31 carries and 80.75 rushing yards. This gives Chubb a touch more than eight yards of value on his rushing player prop bet.
Todd Gurley Over 85.5 Rushing Yards -108
Same as Chubb's prop, a $100 bet on Todd Gurley besting 85.5 rushing yards brings in $92.59. Unlike last week, Gurley finds himself in a very winnable matchup against a decimated Philadelphia Eagles' team.
Gurley had his worst game of 2018 last week against the Chicago Bears, recording 26 yards on 11 carries. However, he's averaging 18.8 carries per game and ranks behind only Ezekiel Elliott with 1,203 rushing yards, Gurley is a solid bounce-back candidate.
Sitting 17th in run defense, per our metrics, the Eagles have allowed the second-most rushing yards to backs over the past four weeks (537). On the other side, Gurley and the Rams boast the number-one rushing attack by our metrics, creating a clear path to success for Gurley.
To improve matters further, bookmakers peg the Rams as 13.0-point favorites, giving them a slate-leading 32.75-point implied team total. With game script favoring the run, our metrics project Gurley for 18.52 rushing attempts and 95.74 rushing yards. This gives Gurley a full 10 yards of value on his prop. Targeting Gurley in this bounce-back spot should provide a solid return.
Antonio Brown Over 80.5 Receiving Yards -108
Heading into Week 15, Brown ranks second in targets (141) and fourth in air yards (1,574). Despite the massive usage, his 1,039 receiving yards sits just 14th in the NFL, creating the perception that Brown could be declining. However, for fantasy purposes, volume trumps all efficiency stats, and Brown has seen plenty this season.
According to our metrics, the Patriots own the 18th-best pass defense so far this season. The Pittsburgh Steelers have been the most pass-heavy team in football, which should give Brown additional opportunities to realize his player prop.
Our models currently project Brown for 7.19 catches and 87.16 receiving yards. This gives Browns just over six yards of value on his player prop. Playing his one of the friendliest offenses for receivers in the NFL, getting Brown's receiving prop at just above 80 yards looks like a lock.