3 NFL Player Prop Bets to Target in Week 14
With the fantasy playoffs here and bye weeks finally finished, Week 14 looks like an exciting football slate. However, with many people eliminated in their season-long leagues, the FanDuel Sportsbook offers a variety of potential outcomes for people to wager on, including games and player prop bets. This allows football enthusiasts to stay involved with the game in a way that's familiar to them.
Here are a few prop bets to target this week, using our projections as a guide.
Baker Mayfield Over 250 Passing Yards/Cleveland Browns Win +260
Looking at player-prop parlays can provide some of the best odds on sportsbooks. This week, the over on Baker Mayfield's 250 passing yard prop and a Cleveland Browns outright win looks particularly attractive. A $100 wager on this parlay nets $260.
As it stands, the Carolina Panthers currently sit as 1.0-point favorites in this contest, but our models predict a straight-up Cleveland victory, 25.07 to 23.34. The Panthers enter this contest losers of four straight games and have allowed at least 20 points to opponents in each of those contests. Opening as 1.0-point favorites, Carolina has handled 62% of bets in this spot, but the line has yet to budge on the FanDuel Sportsbook, indicating potential sharp action on the Cleveland side.
Digging into the matchups, Carolina has particularly struggled in pass defense, where they rank 28th, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics. Over the last four weeks, this secondary has allowed the fifth-most passing yards in all of football (1,133). Transitioning over to Mayfield, the rookie signal caller has averaged 292 passing yards and 32.75 pass attempts in his last four games. Our projections currently peg Mayfield for 269.70 passing yards, giving him almost 20 yards of value in this spot.
Looking like the strongest player-prop parlay on the slate, the over on 250 yards passing for Mayfield along with a Browns victory could net a large return this weekend.
Odell Beckham Jr. Over 85.5 Receiving Yards -108
Unfortunately, Odell Beckham cannot throw touchdowns to himself every week, but he remains a strong value with a prop of 85.5 receiving yards. A winning $100 bet in this spot nets $92.59.
Heading into this week, Beckham ranks fifth in targets (123) and fourth in air yards (1,515) among all wideouts. Seeing massive opportunity, OBJ draws a Washington defense that has allowed the third-most yards to receivers this season (2,294), creating an avenue for success. Our models agree, projecting Beckham for 97.62 receiving yards, a full 12 yards over his player prop. When these two teams met earlier this season, Beckham recorded 8 catches for 136 scoreless yards.
Getting one of the league's premier receivers with a lowly 85.5-yard prop is tough to pass on, and Beckham looks like a strong bet this weekend.
Sony Michel Over 66.5 Rushing Yards -112
In a particularly tight week for running backs, the over on Sony Michel's 66.5 rushing-yard prop stands out. A $100 winning bet in this situation nets $89.29.
Michel's outlook each week depends largely on game script. In victories, the rookie has averaged 21.8 touches per game, but in losses, he has averaged 12.3 touches. The New England Patriots enter this contest favored by 7.5 points, which bodes well for Michel's workload.
Michel's player prop also remains depressed by Rex Burkhead's return, which has made the backfield a three-man committee. However, this likely carries less weight than one might expect. With Burkhead in the lineup last week, the Patriots had two running backs on the field for a league-high 32% of offensive plays. This allows Michel to remain on the field and potentially see more backfield work.
Lastly, Miami has been absolutely clobbered by opposing run games. They rank 28th in rush defense, per our metrics, and have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to backs this season (1,404). Our projections currently slate Michel in for 69.92 rushing yards, just above his rushing prop. However, matchup, game script, and the Patriots' ability to utilize two backs simultaneously elevate his potential usage.
Matthew Gajewski is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matthew Gajewski also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mgajewski. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.