4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 14
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers sitting at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4, a quarterback's top receiver has the strongest positive correlation to quarterback success -- while his tight end and second receiver are next in line.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- especially if that also comes with low ownership percentages. Who fits that mold in Week 14?
Green Bay Packers
It's no secret Aaron Rodgers has had a rough go it in 2018, scoring over 20 FanDuel points in just 4-of-12 games, and the hope is that with Mike McCarthy no longer patrolling the sidelines in Green Bay, the elite Rodgers of old might emerge down the stretch.
And while the coaching change narrative is an intriguing one, the matchup at home against the Falcons is ripe for a Rodgers turnaround as well. After all, Atlanta ranks 30th against the pass by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics and 31st in FanDuel points allowed to quarterbacks. The Packers-Falcons game checks in with a 51.0 over/under, tied for the second-highest of the slate, and a mark that suggests this could turn into a potential shootout.
Rodgers is also coming off back-to-back clunkers, with FanDuel scores of 11.92 and 15.32 against Minnesota and Arizona, so Rodgers is also at his cheapest price of the year, further adding value to this spot.
As always, Davante Adams is the clear choice as a stacking partner with Rodgers, easily leading the team with a 27.9% target market share, while also leading the NFL in red zone targets (25). Finding a cheaper contrarian choice after Adams is a bit more difficult, but considering the sad state of affairs at tight end, you could take a chance on Jimmy Graham ($5,600), who tied his season-high in targets last week (11), and played his most snaps since Week 9 (71.1%)
Ben Roethlisberger's stark home/road splits over the years have often deterred us from rostering him on the road, but that narrative hasn't actually been true in 2018. Big Ben's FanDuel scores in away games this season read 12.00, 25.02, 21.06, 25.20, 23.66, and 22.28. Aside from that Week 1 dud against Cleveland -- a game where Roethlisberger still threw for 335 yards -- he's been putting up some snazzy numbers on the road, and the three latter scores have come against the Ravens, Jaguars, and Broncos, so this hasn't simply been the result of a cupcake schedule.
Part of the reason is just how pass-heavy the Steelers are this year -- perhaps one of the byproducts of Le'Veon Bell's absence -- leading the league in pass attempts per game (43.5) and second in passing play percentage (67.2%). While efficiency is typically what we look for at quarterback, this level of volume can have lucrative results -- just ask Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
With James Conner out this week, Pittsburgh could conceivably air it out even more often against the lowly Raiders, and some of those targets figure to go Jaylen Samuels' way. Samuels and Stevan Ridley are expected to split the backfield touches, but the more versatile Samuels will start, who played multiple positions in college including tight end. The workload split leaves Samuels with an uncertain floor, but Ridley has never been much of a receiving back, so Samuels' history as a pass-catcher grants him enticing upside as a perfect fit in this offense. Even better, Samuels is barely above the salary minimum at running back, making him numberFire's top projected point-per-dollar running back on the slate.
Best of all, Pittsburgh's matchup is sublime against an Oakland defense that ranks 32nd against the pass and 30th against the run by numberFire's metrics, and the Steelers are one of just three teams with an implied total over 30 points this week.
Given Samuels' punt salary and the alluring matchup, you can even go all-in on the Steelers and add Antonio Brown ($8,800) or JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7,500) to your stacks. Brown and Smith-Schuster are averaging 11.3 and 9.9 targets per game, respectively, and have both shown fantastic ceilings this year.
New Orleans Saints
Starting opposing offenses against the Buccaneers has become a near-weekly routine, and this week is no different with the Saints-Bucs game drawing a slate-high 55.0 total. The conventional route will be to stack Drew Brees with Michael Thomas ($8,300), which makes a ton of sense. Thomas is coming off a pair of single-digit FanDuel outings, which hopefully keeps his ownership tempered, but he remains the Saints' top pass-catching choice with a 27.2% target market share and the league's second-most targets inside the 10-yard line (11).
But we also have a ton of exciting high-priced running backs this week in Christian McCaffrey ($9,100), Saquon Barkley ($8,900), Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800) and the Saints' own Alvin Kamara ($8,300), so using Brees and Thomas together will make it more difficult to squeeze these guys in.
Therefore, if you're willing to take on some risk, Tre'Quan Smith offers us a salary-saving stacking choice. Yes, it's well-documented that Smith has performed far better at home, which is where he's produced both of his ceiling games (26.7 and 24.6 FanDuel points), so there's no denying the bust potential here. Since Ted Ginn Jr. was placed on injured reserve, Smith has been held below 6.0 FanDuel points in four road games, including two goose eggs.
That's hardly a ringing endorsement, but it's worth noting that three of those away games came against the Ravens, Vikings and Cowboys, so perhaps those poor results are somewhat defensible. The inconsistent performances haven't put a dent in Smith's playing time, either, as even in his one target debacle against Dallas last week, he played a season-high 84.6% of the snaps.
But this is all about the matchup, as regardless of the venue, Tampa Bay is one of the best opponents a receiver can face. The Bucs are numberFire's 29th-ranked pass defense, and one that's allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game to opposing wideouts.
Smith literally has a floor of zero, but the home/road narrative could scare away ownership from one of the cheapest pieces in the Saints' offense, and the deep threat has already exhibited a tournament-winning ceiling. You can also run it back with Chris Godwin ($5,600) from the Bucs (DeSean Jackson has been ruled out), giving you multiple punts in the same game stack.
After Andrew Luck and the Colts were surprisingly blanked by the Jaguars in an ugly 6-0 loss last week, it's fairly likely the masses won't be clamoring to roster him and T.Y. Hilton on the road in Houston this week.
But prior to that disaster, everyone was singing Luck's praises for his impressive eight-game streak of three or more touchdowns, so this could be an opportunity to use recency bias to our advantage. Meanwhile, over the last four games, Hilton has seen a team-best 26.4% target market share with at least 77 yards in each of those games, including a 155-yard, 2-touchdown outburst against the Titans in Week 11.
The Texans are on a nine-game win streak and have allowed the fourth-fewest points per game this year (19.4), so this doesn't really come off as the best on-paper matchup. But Houston hasn't exactly faced a who's who of top offenses over this stretch, and they sit just 16th against the pass by numberFire's rankings. The last time these two teams faced off in Indianapolis, they combined for 71 points, and there's sneaky shootout potential here with the game sporting a 50.0 over/under.
Hilton often saves his best games for the confines of Lucas Oil Stadium, but he's terrorized the Texans plenty over the years, including on the road in NRG Stadium. The last time Hilton was in Houston, he put up 175 yards and 2 scores in November of last year. However, keep an eye on his status come Sunday, for while there's optimism Hilton will play, he's still shaping up to be a game-time decision.
Kenyatta Storin is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Kenyatta Storin also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username yatters. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.