3 NFL Prop Bets to Target in Week 11
At the outset, Week 11 presents a number of fantasy-friendly environments, with four games pegged by oddsmakers to best 50 points. This includes the historic Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Rams matchup, which has an over/under of 63.5 points, this highest game total since 2000.
With the FanDuel Sportsbook, you can wager on a variety of contests, including games and player prop bets within the game. Here are a few prop bets to target this week, using our projections as guide.
Andrew Luck Over 261.5 Passing Yards -108
Luck finds himself in an awesome matchup as the Titans' pass defense ranks in the bottom-half of the league, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics. Impressively, Luck has not taken a sack in his last four games, playing behind the one of the league's better offensive lines. However, also playing with the league's seventh-worst defense, Luck has often found himself in passing situations, averaging slightly more than 41 pass attempts per game this season.
Bookmakers believe this game will include a multitude of points with the over/under set at 50.5. With the Colts favored by only 2.0, this game projects to remain competitive throughout, boosting Luck's prospects.
Our projections currently slate Luck for 276.42 passing yards, almost 15 yards above his prop bet. Averaging 274.7 passing yards per game, Luck is a solid bet to best his player prop.
Melvin Gordon Over 84.5 Rushing Yards -108
In a similar situation, a $100 bet on Melvin Gordon eclipsing 84.5 rushing yards nets $92.59.
Gordon finds himself in a sweet matchup against the collapsing Denver Broncos, who rank 23rd in run defense, per our metrics. Gordon has been as solid as they come this year, with at least 16 rush attempts in each his last four games. The Los Angeles Chargers remain committed to the run, rushing on 45% of their plays (ninth-most in the league).
Gordon and the Chargers enter this home contest favored by 7.5 points. The expected positive game script puts Gordon in a positive environment to rack up yardage, and we currently project Gordon for 19.47 rush attempts and 96.51 rushing yards. This gives Gordon a full 12 yards of value on his rushing prop.
Eclipsing 90 rushing yards in each of his last three contests, Gordon is in a great spot to do it again.
DeAndre Hopkins Over 100 Receiving Yards/Houston Win +240
Starting with the Texans' side of the prop, bookmakers currently peg Houston as 3.0-point favorites over Washington. However, our models project the margin of victory to be quite a bit higher, with the Texans winning by 5.22 points. Washington continues to deal with a slew of injuries along their offensive line and in their receiver corps, with Brandon Scherff, Shawn Lauvao, and Paul Richardson on injured reserve. The Texans, however, appear healthier out of their bye, with Watson another week removed from his rib injury and Aaron Colvin potentially back after limited practice.
As for Hopkins himself, he has the pleasure of facing one of the league's premier pass-funnel defenses, with just under 75% of the yardage against Washington's D coming through the air. Over the last four weeks, no team has allowed more yards to receivers than Washington (940).
Hopkins comes into the week ranked eighth in targets (91), third in receiving yards (911), and third in air yards (1,169). Without Will Fuller in Week 9, Hopkins saw a crazy-high 50% of the Texans' targets and air yards. While that's not sustainable, it speaks to Hopkins' incredible role on this team.
With Hopkins averaging a touch more than 10 targets per game and Houston a comfy favorite, per our models, this player-prop parlay provides calculated upside for this weekend.