5 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 15
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4's Chris Raybon, a quarterback's top receiver has the strongest positive correlation to quarterback success -- and his tight end and second receiver are next in line.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- all while possibly being underowned. Which teammates might fit the bill in Week 15 on FanDuel's main slate, which excludes the Thursday, Saturday, and Monday games?
So, this article is supposed to detail quarterbacks paired with wide receivers and tight ends, but here's the thing: Bell is basically a top-tier receiver who also plays running back. Over the past five games (coinciding with his bye week in Week 9), Bell has drawn 21.1% of the Pittsburgh Steelers' targets. Put another way he's totaled 47 targets since Week 10, tied for ninth-most in the league -- regardless of position. He's third in catches (40) in that span. Goodness.
His teammate, Antonio Brown ($9,300) is first (66 targets) and second (42 catches) in that span, but he's the more obvious pick to pair with Roethlisberger. Pivoting to Bell helps avoid the more common pairing and also gets you access to a matchup with the New England Patriots' rush defense, which ranks 32nd this year, by our metrics.
As for Roethlisberger, he's pretty cheap at just $8,000. New England is ninth against the pass since Week 10 by our metrics, but they've faced Brock Osweiler, Derek Carr, Matt Moore, Tyrod Taylor, and Jay Cutler in those games. Roethlisberger and the Steelers own the best passing offense in football since Week 7.
The fun here is that you can, of course, run this stack back with Patriots -- Rob Gronkowski ($8,500), Brandin Cooks ($7,400), Chris Hogan ($7,100), and stack them with Tom Brady ($8,800) instead -- as the 54-point over/under here is 6.5 points higher than any other on the main slate. Feel free to get weird in this game, particularly on the Patriots' side given their dispersed market shares.
New Orleans Saints
The pricing here makes this stack a good bet to be underowned because Brady and Roethlisberger are in a similar range -- and Russell Wilson is the same price as Brees. The New Orleans Saints are massive 16-point favorites in this game against the New York Jets, and that suggests a run-heavy game script.
Well, it so happens that the Jets rank first against the rush since Week 7 and fourth on the full season. Against the pass, they're 22nd since Week 7, so it's quite possible that it's through Brees that they build up that lead and get toward their slate-high 31.75-point implied team total.
And with Alvin Kamara coming off a concussion, it's probably reasonable that they don't all of a sudden feed him a huge dose of targets out of the backfield, especially as a heavy favorite. That leaves us with Thomas, who ranks third on the season in air yards market share (per AirYards.com) and who has garnered 31.9% of the Saints' targets over the past five games, ranking fourth in the league.
This one should also go overlooked for a few reasons, the first of which may be simply that the Carolina Panthers are facing the Green Bay Packers, who are getting Aaron Rodgers back. With attention on Rodgers, Newton could slide a bit under the radar. Of course, his passing production has been dreadful, so he's not super appealing anyway. Over his past eight games, Newton hasn't cleared 255 passing yards and has been below 200 yards in five of them. Woof. He has still averaged 19.48 FanDuel points in that span, thanks to 61.9 rushing yards per game.
Green Bay is 29th against the pass since Week 7, and they just lost Davon House for a week or two. Newton may not light it up in the yardage column, but the team should be able to move the ball and get into scoring position, and he's got a clear go-to option in Funchess. Since Week 9 -- the Kelvin Benjamin trade -- Funchess has a 28% market share and a 42% air yards market share, putting him in WR1 territory based on market share. As an added bonus, he's 12th on the year in red zone market share.
San Francisco 49ers
Among 43 quarterbacks with at least 75 drop backs this season, Garoppolo leads in both per-drop back efficiency and Success Rate, by our metrics. That's a good start. The Tennessee Titans are only 18th against the pass when adjusted for opponent since Week 5 despite playing Jay Cutler, Jacoby Brissett, the Cleveland Browns' quarterbacks, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Roethlisberger (who put up nearly 30 FanDuel points against them), Brissett again, Tom Savage, and Blaine Gabbert.
Goodwin has been targeted on 20 of Garoppolo's 72 pass attempts this season (29%) and has 41% of the air yards since Garoppolo took over two weeks ago. Goodwin also has 4 of Garoppolo's 18 red zone attempts this season, including 3 last week. Despite playing a lot of weak pass offenses this season, the Titans still have given up 1.36 receiving FanDuel points per target to wide receivers, ranking them 20th in the league.
Ain't nobody want to stack the Jacksonville Jaguars' passing offense, but they're 11th this season in passing efficiency by our metrics. Even since Week 7, they're 11th, so they keep chugging along. Simply put, things aren't terrible for this team.
While it's hard to justify Bortles at this price, that's kind of the whole reason behind considering him in tournaments. He's averaged 17.66 FanDuel points over his past eight games and 22.40 over the past three -- against the Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts, and Seattle Seahawks. The latter two defenses are reeling right now, and that's the case for the Houston Texans, too. Houston is 30th against the pass since Week 7 by our metrics, the Jags have been a top-12 passing offense this entire season, and Bortles has taken advantage of his weak opponents this year.
The volume, here, is concentrated, and that helps a lot. Westbrook has accounted for 26% of the targets and 36% of the air yards since debuting four weeks ago. He's had 33 total targets in that span, so more than 8 per game. Houston is 29th in FanDuel points per target to wide receivers since Week 7, and Westbrook has big play ability with that air yards profile.
You can also run out Marqise Lee ($6,800) instead of Westbrook, who is getting some buzz this week. Lee has 16 targets the past two games (compared to 17 for Westbrook). In Westbrook's first two games back, Lee drew the coverage of Patrick Peterson and Jason McCourty, and he's actually had 176 air yards to 158 for Westbrook over the past two games in easier matchups.