5 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 11
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4's Chris Raybon, a quarterback's top receiver has the strongest positive correlation to quarterback success -- and his tight end and second receiver are next in line.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- all while possibly being underowned. Which teammates might fit the bill in Week 11 on FanDuel's main slate, which excludes the Thursday and Monday games?
New England Patriots
Brady should be a popular quarterback, but we have a 12-game slate, and he's not super cheap. The odds that he's prohibitively popular come lineup lock are low. Plus, any stack with him can get low-owned because of all the options he can throw to. This one isn't off the radar by any means, but we should be trying to get access to Brady in tournaments. By our Net Expected Points (NEP) metrics, the Oakland Raiders are 32nd against the pass this season. Tom Brady leads all passers in Passing NEP. Yes, please.
As for Cooks, he draws a matchup against a secondary ranking 25th in FanDuel points per target allowed to wide receivers. Cooks has offered a nice floor lately, too, with double-digit FanDuel points in four of five games. Of course, you can stack Rob Gronkowski here as well. Gronkowski has 30% of the team's air yards since Week 6, per AirYards.com, leading the Patriots. The Raiders are just 24th in FanDuel points per target to tight ends.
You can also run this one back with Amari Cooper ($7,300), Michael Crabtree ($7,800), or Jared Cook ($5,600) -- or even stack one of them with Derek Carr ($8,000) -- as the Patriots rank 26th against the pass this season by our metrics. With a total of 53.5 points, we can load this game up a lot of ways, but Brady and Cooks looks like the surest bet to pay off.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs face the New York Giants in a game with a total that is moving up (it opened at 43.5 and is now at 45.0). Of course, Kelce himself will be a popular option, as the Giants are 32nd in FanDuel points per target to tight ends and have given up a touchdown to 10 different tight ends so far this season. Kelce owns a position-best 25.3% target market share over the past five games. He's a no-brainer option.
But the Giants themselves rank 27th against the pass by our metrics and are 32nd since Week 6. They're also 32nd in passing fantasy points per attempt allowed. Alex Smith ranks third in Passing NEP this season and has averaged 21.1 FanDuel points per game of his own, and Andy Reid's teams always show up after bye weeks. Stacking Kelce with Smith will dampen the sting of the tight end's heavy ownership.
This is also a game where you can target the other side of the ball, primarily with Sterling Shepard ($6,500), who has 24 targets over the past two games, and Evan Engram ($7,400) as a direct pivot from Kelce if you'd rather stack Smith with Tyreek Hill ($7,600).
New Orleans Saints
Brees hasn't flashed his usual ceiling of late, but he's been as efficient as always. He's second in the NFL in Passing NEP and is experiencing a four-year high in adjusted yards per attempt. It's just that his touchdown rate (4.3%) is below his career average (5.3%), and that kind of doesn't add up. Yes, it's because the New Orleans Saints are going run-heavy, but if you're playing DFS tournaments, you have to be open to the idea that Brees has a game where he throws for these touchdowns rather than letting his running backs run them in. He's due for positive touchdown regression as it is, and against the 22nd-ranked pass defense since Week 5, in a game with a total of 51.0 points, and an implied team total of 29.25, why couldn't it be this week?
As for the stacking partner, it's obviously Thomas, who should see depressed ownership of his own given the fact that he's the priciest wideout on the main slate by a full $800. Thomas has been sturdy but hasn't hit 20 FanDuel points yet this season. But since Week 6, Thomas has a whopping 31% market share and 48% air yards market share. Again, upside exists for this stack if the touchdowns go their way, and the floors have been high enough that they won't ruin your lineups if they don't find the end zone multiple times.
And yes, this is yet another spot where you can consider a game stack, most easily with Jamison Crowder ($5,400) in the slot. Crowder has 24 targets in the past two games, and the Saints have been more vulnerable on the inside than the outside. If Jordan Reed sits, then Vernon Davis ($5,200) is also in play, and you can even go so far as to roll out Kirk Cousins ($8,200), though his path to production is foggier than Brees'.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Okay, so let's get weird. We know that Evans is a great talent, and from Weeks 6 through 9, he accounted for 37% of Tampa Bay's air yards. He comes back from his suspension to face a Miami Dolphins defense that is 31st in fantasy points per target to wideouts and 29th against the pass by our advanced metrics.
The tougher sell is Fitzpatrick, but again, the Dolphins are 29th against the pass by our analytics and are 27th in passing fantasy points per pass attempt. Fitzpatrick has hovered around the league average in terms of passing efficiency by our metrics, and he gets a stellar matchup with his best receiver back. Those who were burned by him last week won't go there again (present company excluded), but Miami is coming off a Monday night drubbing (so a short week) and is 32nd in overall defense from Week 6 onward, per our metrics. You can't ask for a much better spot for a low-priced quarterback.
Yep. We're going there. Gabbert is the minimum salary for a quarterback, and that's a bit misleading because the gap between Gabbert and some less terrible options isn't that cavernous in terms of salary. He produced at least 20 FanDuel points in two of his five starts last season. The Houston Texans are 31st in passing fantasy points per pass attempt allowed. Gabbert also ran at least nine times in three of his five starts, so there's some ceiling and a bit of floor here if you want to get weird.
As for Fitzgerald, he has a 25% market share this season and draws a pretty solid slot matchup this week. Per Rotoworld's Evan Silva, Gabbert threw 9.2 times per game to his slot receiver in his starts last season, so a Gabbert/Fitzgerald stack could soak up a lot of volume through short passes and carries from the quarterback. You don't have to get this creative in smaller tournaments, but this stack is worth a shot in a low-dollar, gigantic field GPP if you pair it with high-upside expensive options at the other positions.