5 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 10
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4's Chris Raybon, a quarterback's top receiver has the strongest positive correlation to quarterback success -- and his tight end and second receiver are next in line.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- all while possibly being underowned. Which teammates might fit the bill in Week 10 on FanDuel's main slate, which excludes the Thursday and Monday games?
New England Patriots
The Denver Broncos are fifth against the pass by our metrics but actually first against the rush. The better way to move the ball may actually be through the air, and the New England Patriots, off a bye week, assuredly have some plans to beat this defense, which has given up 15-plus FanDuel points to five quarterbacks this season, including a season-high 24.76 to Carson Wentz last week.
This is one of the few spots we can get Brady with low ownership. Brady is still the most efficient passer on a per-play basis according to our metrics and is fifth in Success Rate, the percentage of drop backs that increase expected scoring by our Net Expected Points (NEP) metrics.
As for Gronkowski, he has the fourth-highest target market share of all tight ends over the past three games, and the Broncos are one of just two teams to allow 20-plus FanDuel points to two different tight ends and have given up at least 15 FanDuel points to a tight end three times, a league-high. Denver sits 28th in FanDuel points per target to tight ends, so paying up for this stack could pay off in a big way if the Pats exploit Denver through the tight end and short passes.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the fourth-most efficient passing offense in the league by our metrics, after adjusting for opponent strength. The Indianapolis Colts rank 31st and just released Vontae Davis.
This is a road game, which generally puts Roethlisberger off the radar, but it's a dome game. In 16 career games in domes or in stadiums with retractable roofs, Roethlisberger has posted an adjusted yards per attempt rate of 9.10, higher than his split at home. That helps quell even more of the road concerns.
As for Brown, well, he leads the league in air yards market share, per AirYards.com, and is first in target market share over the past five games (35.4%). The Colts are 21st in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, and basically everything points to a big game from Brown, as the Steelers are coming off a bye.
Dalton has had some extreme splits this year, stemming from matchup. He has -- understandably -- thrived against weak pass defenses, as Jim Sannes detailed earlier this week. That's exactly what the Tennessee Titans have been, as they rank 28th against the pass by our metrics. Dalton is a bit hard to stomach because he's Andy Dalton, but the process is there for him to have a big game this week.
Green is second in air yards market share on the season and owns a 26.1% market share over the past five games, even when factoring in his ejection last week. The Titans have given up two games of 20-plus FanDuel points to receivers this season, and they've allowed 10 different receivers to notch double-digit FanDuel points.
New York Jets
McCown is actually more expensive than Dalton is, so that at least should help us feel more willing to roll with Dalton. But McCown has notched at least 16.9 FanDuel points in four straight games and gets a revenge game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay ranks 30th against the pass by our metrics, and they're 29th in adjusted yards per attempt on passes traveling at least 16 yards downfield. McCown, believe it or not, ranks third in adjusted yards per attempt on deep throws this season.
Anderson has accounted for the eighth-highest market share of deep attempts this season, and he's ninth in air yards market share on the season, as well. He has had just 5, 6, and 5 targets over the past three games and has bailed himself out with a touchdown in three games in a row, yet this is a big pace-up game for the New York Jets, who are 30th in FootballOutsiders' situation-neutral pace, against the 5th-ranked Bucs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fitzpatrick opens up a lot for your rosters this week at just $6,100. He ranks 23rd in Passing NEP per drop back among 40 passers with at least 50 drop backs this season and is 5th in Passing Success Rate in that sample. Jameis Winston ranks 16th and 3rd, respectively, so it's not a huge drop off for the Bucs' offense. Further, the Jets have allowed the seventh-highest yards per carry to quarterbacks this season, and Fitzpatrick ran for 30 yards last week, something he's shown in the past.
As for Brate, he faces a Jets squad that is 24th in fantasy points per target to tight ends. Brate also has the eighth-best target market share among Week 10 tight ends over the past three games and is ninth over the past five games. With the suspension to Mike Evans, he could vie for the weekly lead in tight end targets.
You can also consider DeSean Jackson ($6,300), Adam Humphries ($4,800), and Chris Godwin ($4,500) to pair with Fitzpatrick, though Brate is the safest bet for production, and Godwin is only in tournament consideration.