Fantasy Football Mailbag: Tuesday 12/13/16
Fantasy football research never stops, and roles change drastically from one week to the next. That's where our fantasy football mailbag comes into play.
Have a question about a certain player, team, strategy, or anything football? Shoot us a question on Twitter or send an email to Brandon.Gdula@FanDuel.com, and we can talk anything fantasy football related -- even daily fantasy football.
Now, let's answer some questions.
@numberFire Andrew Luck @ Min or Palmer vs NO..
— nico (@sneakerkidnick) December 13, 2016
I can see your dilemma here. Andrew Luck has to face a tough Minnesota Vikings defense, which ranks second against the pass, per our metrics, and third against fantasy quarterbacks, per our DFS tools.
We project Luck for just 15.63 points, with a floor of 7.76 points and a ceiling of just 23.5. That median projection of 15.63 makes him the QB20 for the week.
Carson Palmer has it easier against the New Orleans Saints, who are 28th against the pass, per our metrics, and 21st against fantasy quarterbacks. The Arizona Cardinals have an implied total of 26.25 points as 2.5-point favorites.
Palmer's floor is projected at 10.39, higher than Luck's, and his ceiling is a tad higher, too, at 23.85 points. Our median projection for him is 17.12 points, ranking as the QB13 for the week.
Trust Palmer here.
Email submission from Keenan:
Who do you like better at TE this week between Brate and L. Green?
That's a close one. Our half-PPR projections have Cameron Brate for 6.80 points, with a range of 1.94 to 11.66 points. His Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a great matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, who are 24th against fantasy tight ends this year.
However, the Bucs are 7-point underdogs and have an implied total of 19.5 -- not a great recipe for tight ends.
Ladarius Green is in a similar range from a projections standpoint. Our algorithm projects him for 0.93 to 11.69 points, with a median of 6.31. That puts him slightly behind Brate, but his team situation looks better.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 3.0-point road favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals and have an implied total of 23.5 points. That projects better for his touchdown potential. His snap rate dropped from 48% in Week 13 to 37% in Week 14, but he still saw 6 targets.
It's pretty much a wash, but I'd lean toward Green against the 28th-ranked tight end defense this year.
Want to have your questions answered in our mailbag? Submit your questions by tweeting @numberFire or sending an email to Brandon.Gdula@FanDuel.com.