Fantasy Football Mailbag: Wednesday 10/26/16
Fantasy football research never stops, and roles change drastically from one week to the next. That's where our fantasy football mailbag comes into play.
Have a question about a certain player, team, strategy, or anything football? Shoot us a question on Twitter or send an email to Brandon.Gdula@FanDuel.com, and we can talk anything fantasy football related -- even daily fantasy football.
Now, let's answer some questions.
@rustypedalbike @numberFire pondering this same question by the hour...
— joshuagedrose (@joshuagedrose) October 26, 2016
Sounds like the people want to discuss Jay Ajayi, so let's give the people what they want. We can throw out his consecutive 200-yard games because they won't help moving forward. Our projections see Ajayi as the RB21 for the rest of the season, making him more an RB2 than a surefire RB1, but that's all right -- because his volume should put him in the "starting fantasy running back" conversation.
Ajayi has played on 68%, 69%, and 64% of the Miami Dolphins' snaps in his past three games, giving him a top-11 rate among running backs for three consecutive weeks. While the sub-70 snap rate is far from a workhorse level, it's not something that's easy to find on a weekly basis.
So, no, he's not an RB1 unless the vacated Arian Foster touches go to Ajayi rather than Damien Williams, but he's a fantastic asset to have down the stretch even with an up-and-down schedule. I'm keeping him.
@numberFire start 2 (one WR slot, one flex): Jordy, Larry Fitz, M Ingram, Christine Michael, Dez.
— Jake Mortenson (@jm0rt) October 26, 2016
I'll assume half-PPR scoring, Jake, just to make the info stick in case you're standard or PPR, but this is a good question to have. Our projections would rank them: Larry Fitzgerald (16.0 half-PPR points this week), Christine Michael (14.1), Jordy Nelson (13.3), Dez Bryant (12.7), and Mark Ingram (12.6).
I could live with that, considering that the Arizona Cardinals face the Carolina Panthers, who rank 21st against the pass, per our metrics. Michael and the Seattle Seahawks head to the Superdome to face the New Orleans Saints as 3-point favorites with an implied team total of 25.5 points. The Saints have the worst run defense in the league, per our metrics. So, those two are the safest options with probably the highest ceilings.
I'm trusting the projections here and would slot Fitz in at wide receiver and Michael in at flex.
@numberFire jimmy graham for Diggs?? Thoughts?
— Greg Watson (@Greg_Watson5) October 26, 2016
It's not quite that simple, of course, but really, what solidifies Diggs for me is position scarcity. Assuming your league is fairly standard, with just one tight end required, you can likely still stream the position for the rest of the year.
Vernon Davis (41.3% owned in ESPN leagues), Cameron Brate (34.6%), Jack Doyle (20.6%), and, heck, even C.J. Fiedorowicz (10.2%) can all be plug-and-play options moving forward when the matchup is right. We've seen what Diggs' upside can be, and an elite receiver will almost always be more valuable than a top-five tight end when other options are on the waiver wire. Oh, and Diggs happens to have a pretty juicy schedule ahead, including two of his next five games against the Detroit Lions.
Want to have your questions answered in our mailbag? Submit your questions by tweeting @numberFire or sending an email to Brandon.Gdula@FanDuel.com.