Fantasy Football Mailbag: Tuesday 10/25/16
Fantasy football research never stops, and roles change drastically from one week to the next. That's where our fantasy football mailbag comes into play.
Have a question about a certain player, team, strategy, or anything football? Shoot us a question on Twitter or send an email to Jim.Sannes@FanDuel.com, and we can talk anything fantasy football related -- even daily fantasy football.
Now, let's answer some questions.
Email submission from Spencer Muller:
Would you trade Alshon for Demaryius Thomas? My friend who had offered Cooks before refuses to trade him now since Alshon has sucked and Cooks has gone off. Should I make this trade, or try holding off for a week or two to see if things change? I know Cutler is coming back this next week, so that should hopefully help Alshon's chances for the rest of the season.
It's always hard to get super jazzed about a trade that involves only two players at the same position because it ensures there will be a "loser" in the trade. However, if we're looking strictly at the rest-of-season outlook, Demaryius Thomas' is more optimistic than that of Alshon Jeffery.
Thomas has had double-digit targets in each of the past two games, the first times this year he has out-targeted Emmanuel Sanders. Thomas' target market share in those games is 27.8%, bringing his season-long mark up to 23.5%. He's trending up right as the team prepares to face the San Diego Chargers, Oakland Raiders, and New Orleans Saints, with the Raiders and Saints ranking 28th and 29th, respectively, against the pass, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.
Jeffery's usage the past two weeks has been encouraging with 13 and 11 targets, respectively, his two highest marks of the season. However, the return of Jay Cutler may not do a whole lot for him. Jeffery had seven targets in Week 1, and he had just four when Cutler left the game in Week 2 due to injury, fewer than Eddie Royal had at that point. He might not be fully free of his usage issues, and in an inefficient offense, he slides a bit behind Thomas in season-long rankings.
@numberFire is jacquizz rodgers here to stay, or should we start shopping him for a more long-term RB?
— Ryan Adams (@grizzlyadams21) October 25, 2016
As of now, we still don't know when Doug Martin will be able to return to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' lineup. Until he does, Jacquizz Rodgers is going to be a lock-and-load type guy, and there's plenty of value in that, even if it's not a long-term solution.
In his two games as the Bucs' lead back, Rodgers has amassed 62 (62!!!) total touches, churning out at least 129 yards from scrimmage in both outings. He has yet to find the end zone, but he does have eight carries and two targets inside the red zone. If he keeps up this volume, the scores will come, and that adds a ceiling to his volume-inflated floor.
The team will likely (and should) sprinkle in rookie Peyton Barber to give Rodgers a break, as they did in Week 7. But even with that, Rodgers will have immense value, which is why it's fine to ride the hot hand until Martin comes back without worrying too much about what happens beyond that.
@numberFire Is Latavius back to being fantasy relevant after this weeks usage?
— Bill (@shkbilly) October 25, 2016
Very much so, yes. Latavius Murray's still not a perfect fantasy asset thanks to his 58.3% snap rate in that game, but you have to love everything else about his usage.
As noted in this week's market share report, Murray's 18 carries accounted for a majority of the Raiders' 27 running-back totes for the day. He also added five targets, and seven of his total opportunities came in the red zone, allowing him to hit paydirt twice. The 18 carries were easily his most this season, and he seems to be the top dog in the backfield once again.
Oakland's schedule going forward isn't necessarily pretty, but Murray has the advantage of running behind one of the best offensive lines in all of football. When he has that and the usage he saw in Week 7, he's going to be a guy we can count on much more than we could have in his previous role.
Want to have your questions answered in our mailbag? Submit your questions by tweeting @numberFire or sending an email to Jim.Sannes@FanDuel.com.