NFL Survivor Pool Best Bets: Week 4

With our Dallas pick last week taking the edge off of a crazy first 3 weeks, it's possible you're even still alive. So who's next?

I’m A Survivor: Maximize Your Winnings Week 4

Most people, when picking for their eliminator pool, just pick the team with the best chance to win that week. The best way to maximize your chances of winning, however, is to make a decision based on what teams other people are picking. If 75% of the population is picking the top game, you stand to gain from picking the second best option. That way, even though both teams are likely to win, if the top team is upset (see: Patriots, Week 2), 75% of the pool has been eliminated and you are still standing. Using every possible combination of game outcomes for the week (65,000+), we tell you who maximizes your potential gains.

Another quarter gone…

If you listened to us and took our win-maximizing pick, you would have been sweating (again) while the Dallas Cowboys edged out the Tampa Bay Bucs in one of the more boring games on the day. Five of the seven most picked teams lost this week including the top picked team, San Francisco. Also, our most sincere apologies if you were eliminated based on the touchdownterception Monday night. If you are still alive in your pool or if you’re in a pool with multiple strikes, keep on reading. If you’re like most of America and have been eliminated already, feel free to buy another round on your winnings from numberFire's Premium Product.

Week 4's Top Picks

Baltimore over Cleveland (75.2% Win Probability)
Baltimore is clearly one of the top teams in the league, beating the Patriots on Sunday night by the slimmest of margins (literally, the field goal was good by a hair). Playing at home against a winless Cleveland team should make for one of the least entertaining Thursday Night games all year.

Houston over Tennessee (74.3% Win Probability)
One of the three remaining undefeated teams, Houston looks like the favorite to win the AFC right now. Matt Schaub and Arian Foster are clicking on all cylinders and they have the most efficient defense in the league after Week 3.

Denver over Oakland (71.1% Win Probability)
Oakland pulled the huge upset on Pittsburgh last week, but they had the fortune of playing in the Black Hole at home. They should not be so lucky going up against Peyton Manning on the road in Week 4.

This week’s most picked teams:
1. Baltimore Ravens over Cleveland Browns (61.0%)
2. Detroit Lions over Minnesota Vikings (6.7%)
3. Houston Texans over Tennessee (4.5%)

Who to pick:
Houston Texans (71.1% adjusted win odds)
If you picked Houston already, which many people did, then Denver is your next best option at 68.0%.

Full Adjusted Win Odds (Based on population picks)

This Week Adjusted Win Odds
Houston 71.1%
Denver 68.0%
San Francisco 63.6%
Dallas 61.9%
Atlanta 59.5%
Minnesota 58.9%
Seattle 58.4%
Arizona 58.2%
New England 57.7%
Jacksonville 56.5%
Cleveland 56.3%
Philadelphia 53.0%
Green Bay 52.4%
San Diego 50.3%
Tampa Bay 50.2%
Washington 49.8%
Kansas City 49.7%
New Orleans 47.6%
New York Giants 47.0%
Baltimore* 43.7%
Cincinnati 43.5%
Buffalo 42.3%
Miami 41.8%
St. Louis 41.6%
Detroit 41.1%
Carolina 40.5%
Chicago 38.1%
New York Jets 36.4%
Oakland 32.0%
Tennesee 28.9%

*Obviously Baltimore is a huge favorite, but given that a ridiculous 61% of people are picking them, there is not much of an equity gain by picking them.