Top 4 Fantasy One-Hit Wonders from Week 3
There are excellent waiver wire prospects, there are moderate "I'll probably drop him next week anyway" prospects, and then there are these guys. Without some team injury troubles to help them out, I wouldn't touch with a 39.5 foot pole for one reason or another. Nervous about who is going to replace Reggie Wayne or Antonio Brown in your fantasy lineup in this first week with byes? Look somewhere else for your own good.
Four Fantasy Football Week 3 One-Hit Wonders
RB Danny Woodhead - New England Patriots
Week 3 Fantasy Points: 9
Week 4 Projected Points: 5.83
Leagues Owned: 5.3%
Of the 5.3% of ESPN fantasy leagues that have Danny Woodhead owned, how many do you think are based in eastern Massachusetts? Three-quarters of them? Four-fifths? For the rest of you non-Patriot homers or just plain old smart fantasy players, Danny Woodhead is not a solid pickup. It's likely that Woodhead is going to be playing an increased role in the Patriots' offense over the next couple of weeks, but that increased role does not necessarily mean "running the ball". The Patriots lined up with at least three receivers on the field in 60 of their 82 snaps against the Ravens, and as expected, 55% of their plays run were passes. The Patriots like Danny Woodhead in that particular set better than Stevan Ridley: he's a pass-catcher out of the backfield, and draw guy if needed, but not a workhorse back. The offensive system seemed to work for New England against the tough Ravens D, and it would not surprise me to see that passing attack go right back to work against Buffalo this week (Tom Brady is our #2 fantasy QB this week). But until he takes over a role as a workhorse back, and that role unlikely with Ridley still healthy, Woodhead is not worth a look.
RB Lamar Miller - Miami Dolphins
Week 3 Fantasy Points: 4
Week 4 Projected Points: 1.37
Leagues Owned: 3.1%
After gaining 12 fantasy points against the Raiders in week 2 and rushing for 48 yards on nine carries against the Jets in week 3, Miller may be looking like an intriguing pickup in a week where most leagues' running back selection is somewhere between "Replacement refs in the Ravens/Patriots game" and "Replacement refs in the Packers/Seahawks game". But Miller's role is not nearly defined well enough to be a solid pickup; lay off the Miami back for now. His week 2 fantasy point totals came late in that game; remember, starting back Reggie Bush had already torched the Raiders LB corps for 37 fantasy points of his own. This past week, Miller received some playing time once Bush went out, but it was Daniel Thomas that the coaches trusted as the workhorse back (he received 19 carries to Miller's nine). With Bush questionable to come back already this week, Miller is not even worth the one-week flier to see what he can do. He's buried on the depth chart until further notice and should be buried on your waiver wire until the same point.
WR T.Y. Hilton - Indianapolis Colts
Week 3 Fantasy Points: 17
Week 4 Projected Points: BYE
Leagues Owned: 0.2%
Keep this note in your back pocket and bust it out again next week as well for when he still looks intriguing coming off a bye: the rookie's about as useful on your fantasy team as Paris or Nicky Hilton would be. Hilton received eight targets on Sunday, a solid number for a normal game, but actually third among Indy receivers in week 3 behind Reggie Wayne's 15 and Donnie Avery's nine. A 50% catch rate does nothing to inspire confidence, even if Avery's 22% catch rate makes Hilton look like Jerry Rice by comparison. Andrew Luck has thrown the ball around a good deal over the first three weeks, but it wasn't until this week that he even thought about getting Hilton involved; the FIU product had one combined catch over the first two weeks. As the season wears on, he may push for some of Avery's targets, but I'm not enamored with having Indianapolis's #2 receiver on my team, let alone a guy who could be #3 or #4 in any given week when you throw in Coby Fleener as well. Don't trust him quite yet.
WR Cecil Shorts - Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 3 Fantasy Points: 14
Week 4 Projected Points: 2.57
Leagues Owned: 0.4%
Cecil Shorts the Third (I love that he's officially credited as "C. Shorts III" on ESPN box scores) may have one of the coolest names in the entire NFL, but a cool name does not necessarily make for a solid fantasy pickup. Here is the list of Jaguars players targeted more times than Shorts on Sunday in another of his "breakout" games: Justin Blackmon (understandable), Kevin Elliott (umm...), Greg Jones (I think I had him on a Madden team once), and Mike Thomas (he's still in the NFL?). That list doesn't even include Maurice Jones-Drew and Laurent Robinson, who currently rank fourth and first, respectively, in Jaguars targets for the season. Robinson sustained a concussion against the Colts on Sunday, but even if Shorts moves into the starting role, he remains a waiver-wire player. At best, Shorts is the third option for Blaine Gabbert in any given game behind Blackmon and Jones-Drew. At worst, he's an afterthought, much like he was in week 2. Unless you are in the coolest fantasy league ever and get bonus points for awesome names, Shorts is not for you.