5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 12
Jacksonville Jaguars Rushing Offense
Week 12 is filled with back-up running backs filling in for their injured counterparts, creating opportunity for you to pay down and save some cash. People are going to hop all over those little pups, and we'll discuss one of them a bit later. But down in that same price range is another name that you shouldn't be forgetting: T.J. Yeldon.
The Jacksonville Jaguars' rookie has had a tough opening campaign. He is 29th in Rushing NEP per play of the 37 running backs with at least 80 carries and 34th in Rushing Success Rate. Struggling might be putting it mildly.
Although Yeldon individually hasn't had a great year, he checks every other box we're looking for here. He is seeing volume (both in the form of carries and snaps), he comes at a low price, his team is favored and at home, and he has an ideal matchup.
Let's start with the volume. Even last week when he was dealing with a foot injury and Denard Robinson was healthy, Yeldon played 81.7 percent of the offensive snaps. He has seen at least that many in each of the past four games, and he has never dipped below 62.7 percent, a rate that came in the season opener.
There hasn't been a shortage of carries, either. Yeldon has toted the rock at least 11 times in each game, and he has had 14 or more in each of the past four games. This is both when the team is leading and trailing, mind you. This gives him an acceptable floor. It's the matchup that gives him the upside.
The San Diego Chargers rank dead last in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, as you likely saw last week. That's when Spencer Ware lit them up for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns on only 11 carries in relief of Charcandrick West. He became the eighth running back to record a top-10 finish against the Chargers in only 10 games. Whew, doggies.
Everything in Vegas lines up well for Yeldon, too. The Jaguars have only been favored in two other games this season, and they have never been as heavily favored as their -4 line this week. If game flow works out as the spread projects, this could be a fine little game for Yeldon.
The big concern here is whether or not Yeldon will see carries once the team gets down inside the 20. After all, Robinson saw five red-zone carries last week to Yeldon's two, and they have dropped back on 59 percent of their plays in the red zone. If he can't get touchdowns, why should we trust him?
This one -- for me -- again boils down to matchup. Teams have run the ball 41 times in the red zone against the Chargers this year, and nine of those have turned into touchdowns. Opponents have found success against the Chargers in close. If the Jaguars are willing to give Yeldon a chance, he could see a bit of touchdown regression in the positive sense.
Checking in at $6,500 on FanDuel and $4,800 on DraftKings, Yeldon is only a bit more expensive than the back-up running backs who find themselves in expanded roles. This could push his ownership down a bit. When you can fulfill all of the desires that Yeldon does at potentially reduced ownership, that can lend itself to big days in the daily fantasy realm.
