5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 12
Kansas City Chiefs Rushing Offense
As of right now, we don't know whether West or Ware is going to see the bulk of the carries for the Kansas City Chiefs. What we do know is that whoever ends up starting deserves a spot on your roster.
No matter who has rotated in at running back this year for Kansas City, they have had success. Despite seeing multiple backs go down via injury, the Chiefs sit sixth in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play. This is likely a product of the offensive line and offense as a whole operating well, which means the backs can be almost interchangeable in the fantasy sense. This is what makes the recommendation stand even if West can't go.
They'll be matched up with a Buffalo Bills defense that has -- somewhat surprisingly -- struggled in its efficiency against the rush this year. They enter Week 12 ranked 26th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, in the same area around which they have hovered since the early weeks of the season.
Although opposing running backs haven't busted out a large number of huge games against the Bills, they have consistently let up decent performances. Nine running backs have hit double-digit scoring against the Bills, even though only six running backs have had double-digit carries. If the volume is there, the points will follow.
The Chiefs are reassuring in that they remain fairly loyal to one running back. In his four healthy, featured games, West saw over 80 percent of the snaps three times. Jamaal Charles was on the field for at least 74.3 percent of the snaps in each of the four games he was healthy. In most instances, they're willing to ride with just one back for most of the game.
I would feel far more comfortable with West in this game simply because we've seen he can do it consistently and that he'll be on the field. However, it seems unlikely that he'll suit up. Ware is risky, but I think he can warrant that risk at his price.
The big reservation with Ware is that he has only played 38 snaps the entire season. Yes, 22 of those came last week with West hampered, but it's hard to be sure he'll see the field with regularity. That makes me nervous.
The upside with Ware is that you know he's not going to get vultured once the team gets in close. He had five carries inside the 10-yard line last week, and he was the vulture back in Week 9 in London. He can find the end zone, and that helps quell the legitimate concerns with his playing time.
Again, you've got options in this lower register of pricing at running back. Some of the others (specifically Javorius Allen and Thomas Rawls) don't have the same playing-time issues Ware might have. But -- because of concerns with Allen's offense and Rawls' matchup -- I think that Ware has the most upside of this group. This is all dependent on who ends up getting the call, but both Ware and West project to be solid options this weekend.
