5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 12
Tennessee Titans Passing Offense
On its face, this one may not appear as obvious just based on NEP. After all, the Tennessee Titans rank 31st in Adjusted Passing NEP per play. So, why should we be targeting them?
It turns out that exposure to Zach Mettenberger is not conducive to high efficiency marks. Over his 83 drop backs, Mettenberger had -24.85 Passing NEP, currently the second worst mark in the league of anybody who has attempted a pass, besting only Nick Foles. His -0.30 Passing NEP per drop back was actually significantly worse than Foles's 0.14. Not great, Bob!
The offense has run more more smoothly with Marcus Mariota under center. He has turned his 284 drop backs into 32.54 Passing NEP, equating to 0.11 Passing NEP per drop back. That ranks right in the middle of the pack -- 18th out of 37 -- of the quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. We can work with that.
The bigger focus here in terms of efficiency is the Oakland Raiders' defense. They are 29th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, and they have been bleeding points to opposing offenses the whole season.
The Raiders have only faced three quarterbacks the entire year with better Passing NEP per drop back marks than Mariota's. Even with that, they have allowed a top-12 scoring week to every quarterback except Teddy Bridgewater (who was throwing in 25-mile-per-hour winds) and Peyton Manning. Two quarterbacks who posted top-10 scoring weeks (Geno Smith and Ben Roethlisberger) didn't even start that respective game. It's hard to grasp how unfathomably bad that is.
Mariota's fantasy output this year has been a bit hit and miss, but he has consistently posted quality performances against inferior opponents. He has twice faced defenses in the top five in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, and he promptly performed like a rookie in both. In his other six games, he has averaged 20.01 fantasy points per game. That includes a game against the Miami Dolphins in which he sustained an injury. If you exclude that one, his point-per-game average creeps up to 22.66. For only $7,000 on FanDuel and $5,500 on DraftKings, you'll take that.
The asset I feel most comfortable pairing with Mariota is -- by a sizable distance -- Delanie Walker. He has been ridiculously consistent this entire season, seeing at least eight targets in five of the nine games he has played, including two of the last three. It didn't work out with Eric Ebron last week, but Ebron did drop a touchdown, or else the Raiders' streak of putridness against tight ends would have persisted. Considering Walker ranks eighth in Reception NEP per target of the 28 tight ends with at least 30 targets, I'd roll him out with regularity this weekend.
This would be a far riskier move, but you could consider Kendall Wright, as well, if you aren't enamored with Walker. Wright is expected to return this week after sitting the past three games with a knee injury. In the five healthy non-blowout games he has played this year, he has averaged seven targets per game and played at least 74.1 percent of the snaps in each. I'd feel much safer with Walker, but Wright's price ($5,300 on FanDuel and $4,400 on DraftKings) makes him potentially viable.
