5 Quarterbacks Who Should Outperform Their Fantasy Football Cost This Year
Philip Rivers
Ever since his down 2012 season, Philip Rivers, a.k.a., the man with too many kids (six to be exact, with a seventh on the way), has been criminally undervalued by fantasy drafters. Rivers is currently being drafted as the 14th quarterback on average, whereas numberFire projects Rivers to finish as the 10th-highest scoring fantasy quarterback. A look at Rivers’ performance since 2008 shows how that could be a conservative projection as well.
| Season | Yards | Touchdowns | FPPG | Fantasy PPG Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 4,009 | 34 | 21.55 | 5 |
| 2009 | 4254 | 28 | 20.98 | 9 |
| 2010 | 4,710 | 30 | 22.54 | 4 |
| 2011 | 4,624 | 27 | 21.8 | 7 |
| 2012 | 3,606 | 26 | 18.02 | 18 |
| 2013 | 4,478 | 32 | 22.44 | 6 |
| 2014 | 4,286 | 31 | 21.78 | 9 |
Having thrown for more than 25 touchdowns in each of the past seven seasons, while only failing to reach 4,000 yards once in the same time frame, it’s high time fantasy owners start betting on Rivers again. What’s more impressive is that in 2014, Rivers dealt with a serious rib injury for most of the second half of the season. Rivers threw 20 of his 31 total touchdown passes in the first half of the season.
And while the yardage distribution between his two season halves were roughly similar, 52% in the first eight games to 48% in the second, Rivers’s consistency was much more apparent prior to the reports in mid-November of the rib injury he was dealing with.
In fact, Rivers only threw for fewer than 200 yards in three games last season. All three came in the second half of the season. With a full offseason to nurse his wounds, I’d bet on first half Phillip’s consistency making a grand return.
In terms of real football, Rivers has been a model of efficiency and consistency. Aside from his 2012 season, which is looking like a bizarre deviation from the mean, Rivers has put up top-10 numbers in per drop back efficiency in all but one season (2007).
| Pass NEP | Rank | Per Drop Back | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 86.68 | 3rd | 0.18 | 3rd |
| 2007 | 49.45 | 11th | 0.10 | 11th |
| 2008 | 126.25 | 3rd | 0.25 | 3rd |
| 2009 | 175.86 | 2nd | 0.34 | 1st |
| 2010 | 149.59 | 2nd | 0.26 | 2nd |
| 2011 | 105.64 | 6th | 0.17 | 5th |
| 2012 | 16.93 | 18th | 0.03 | 18th |
| 2013 | 162.80 | 3rd | 0.28 | 2nd |
| 2014 | 105.93 | 9th | 0.18 | 6th |
How does this translate to fantasy? It tells you that even if Rivers loses some passing attempts due to more plays being directed toward handing the ball off to stud rookie Melvin Gordon, Rivers can still get his fantasy points because he can do more with less.
numberFire still projects Rivers to attempt roughly 600 passes this season with 29 touchdown passes. With the addition of the under-rated Stevie Johnson, a hungrier Keenan Allen, and unheralded yet hyper-efficient Malcom Floyd, Rivers should continue to put up top-10 numbers for fantasy owners loading up their rosters with studs while waiting for the man with too many kids to fall into their laps.
