The 3 Best Bets to Win Super Bowl LIII Based on numberFire's Projections

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Betting Odds: +470
numberFire Projection: 18.8%

Like I mentioned in the introduction, this isn't just about identifying the most likely teams to win the Super Bowl, but the best betting values. So while our projections have the Kansas City Chiefs as favorites, they still only make it to number two in our list of best value.

Our projections are also a lot more conservative in picking a favorite than oddsmakers are. The Saints, at +230, are implied a 30.3% chance of wining it all. Our 18.8% projection for KC would translate to a +432 betting line.

If you're a believer in the old adage of "defense wins championships", you may be shocked by our favoring the Chiefs. Our models have them ranked 26th on defense (16th against the pass and dead-last against the run), which is the worst rating of any of the playoff teams.

They also rank first on offense, though, which includes fifth on the ground and first through the air.

Their Adjusted Passing NEP per play of 0.39 is not only the best in the NFL, but it ranks fourth among all offenses since 2000, when our database begins. Only the 2016 Atlanta Falcons, 2007 New England Patriots and 2004 Indianapolis Colts rank better. As far as overall offense, they have the best Adjusted NEP per play in our database.

That historically great offense is led by Pat Mahomes, who leads all quarterbacks in Passing NEP per drop back. On the ground, Damien Williams actually posted better numbers than Kareem Hunt in both Rushing NEP per carry (0.056 to 0.055) and Rushing Success Rate (the percentage of rushes that generate positive NEP; 54.0% to 45.9%).

KC may not offer much on the defensive end, but when their offense is clicking there aren't many teams that can keep up with them.