The 3 Best Bets to Win Super Bowl LIII Based on numberFire's Projections

3. Los Angeles Rams

Betting Odds: +500
numberFire Projection: 17.3%

As far as ranking the teams goes, oddsmakers and numberFire's projections are in agreement on the Los Angeles Rams -- they're the third-most likely team to win the Super Bowl.

As far as probabilities go, there's a slight difference though. Oddsmakers have the Rams at +500, giving them an implied probability of 16.7%. Our models have them slightly ahead of that at 17.3%.

The first thing to note is that the Rams are one of the four teams on bye this week, meaning they need to win only two games to reach the Super Bowl. For some quick napkin math on how important that is, even if we considered them 80% to win a game in the wild card round and kept their same Super Bowl projection we have now, that would reduce their chances to only 13.8%.

The Rams' offense ranks third in our Adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) per play metric, which comes with a well-rounded fourth-ranked passing attack and second-ranked rushing game.

Among the 34 passers to drop back at least 200 times this season, Jared Goff has generated the fifth-most Passing NEP per drop back (0.25). Todd Gurley has been similarly impressive, ranking second in Rushing NEP per carry (0.16) among backs with at least 100 carries on the year.

They don't stack up quite as well on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 10th against the pass but only 23rd against the run. Because of the importance of passing (especially when you look at the other top teams in this year's playoffs), that poor rushing rank isn't a huge concern, and they do still rank 12th overall on that side of the ball.

Finishing as the second seed in the NFC definitely creates some room for concern, though, as they may have to play the Chicago Bears in the second round, and both oddsmakers and our models have the Bears as the most likely team to win the Super Bowl without a bye week. They will also be on the road if they end up playing the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship Game.