NFL

The 3 Best Bets to Win Super Bowl LIII Based on numberFire's Projections

Jason Schandl  —  @JasonSchandl Jan 2nd, 2019
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1. New England Patriots

Betting Odds: +600
numberFire Projection: 17.6%

Rest easy, "defense wins championships" crowd, the New England Patriots are our top-ranked defense among the four bye week teams this season, ranking 12th against the pass, 14th against the run and 11th overall.

They are also our most well-rounded team in the group, ranking fifth in pass offense, sixth in rushing offense and fourth in offense overall.

Tom Brady sits seventh in Passing NEP per drop back, with a mark of 0.23 that sits above his career-average of 0.21. Their running attack is led by Sony Michel, who ranks a respectable 23rd in Rushing NEP per carry.

A deep playoff run would be nothing new for Bill Belichick and the Patriots, and their competition in the AFC this year isn't exactly deadly.

According to our power rankings, the three best teams in the NFL are all in the NFC. There could also be some benefit to being the second seed in the AFC instead of the first seed. Our rankings have the Los Angeles Chargers as the best team in the conference, but they're a wild card team. So, if the Chargers and Houston Texans win in the wild card round, the one-seed Chiefs would draw the tougher matchup.

The Chargers are also playing the Baltimore Ravens in the first round, guaranteeing that one of our top-three ranked teams in the AFC (the Patriots being the other) will be eliminated regardless.

We project New England for the second-best odds of winning the Super Bowl (behind the Chiefs), and while oddsmakers agree that the Chiefs are more likely, they imply a much bigger gap. At +600, the Patriots are implied 14.3% to win -- 3.2% lower than KC. We have the difference at only 1.2%.

The Patriots also have by far the biggest gap between our projections and the implied probability from the betting odds at 3.3%. That's more than twice the Chiefs' differential of 1.3%.

Excelling in all areas and standing to benefit a bit from the scheduling format, the Patriots are the best bet to win Super Bowl LIII.

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