5 DraftKings Bargains for Week 16
Kalen Ballage, RB, Miami Dolphins
DraftKings Price: $3,700
Projected Points: 10.73
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.9
As it’s late in the season, we see teams bring in younger guys into their offensive game plans or look towards developing the bottom end of their roster because of a lost season. In the case of the Miami Dolphins, they are down a starting running back in Frank Gore, who endured a season-ending injury in Week 15. While many would have expected Kenyan Drake to assume running back duties last week, it was Kalen Ballage instead. Ballage, the Fins' rookie running back, had only logged 23 snaps prior to Gore departing Sunday’s game.
The rookie logged 12 carries and 1 target in what was largely a blowout, as the Vikings were able to tack on quick touchdowns to start the game. Ballage logged 49% of the team’s snaps, while Drake saw 53% and only tallied 4 touches. Drake has largely been an enigma for someone who was highly rated among the fantasy community during the summer, and it’s apparent that the team prefers to use him sparingly. Drake hasn’t exceeded 15 opportunities since Week 6.
Ballage was Miami’s fourth-round pick this past draft out of Arizona State University. At 6’2 and 228 pounds, Ballage has the rare combination of size and speed, placing him within the 96th percentile of speed score per Player Profiler. His athleticism has translated on the field as well. Next Gen Stats clocked his Week 15 touchdown carry at 21.87 mph, the best for the week and top 10 on the season.
The Dolphins have a tough running back group to peg, so there is risk in rostering Ballage. For one, Gore earned 11.2 touches per game this season and was a much bigger factor in the running back rotation than anyone anticipated. Assuming rational personnel decisions bears risk. Secondly, the Dolphins play at the slowest pace in the league, based on Football Outsiders' seconds per play metrics, so the projected number of overall plays will be low.
Ballage brings some intrigue in tournament settings where his big play ability wouldn't be confined to the limited touches he has or the style of play the Dolphins employs. For what it's worth, the Dolphins are also vying for a playoff spot, while it seems like Jacksonville Jaguars may be throwing in the towel.
