Fantasy Football: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 14

Aaron Rodgers Will Return to Form

2018 just hasn't been Aaron Rodgers' year. He sprained his MCL in the very first game of the season and hasn't looked like himself at all.

It's been visible on the field, but numberFire's metrics back it up, too. Between 2009 and 2017 Rodgers has averaged 0.22 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back. That means that every time he dropped back to pass during that time, he added almost a full quarter of a point to his team's expected points total. In the 2018 season, he's averaging just 0.14 Passing NEP per dropback, which is a pretty significant difference. And only 46.18 percent of his pass attempts have added value to the Green Bay Packers' expected points total, his lowest mark since his down 2015 season.

Those low marks for Rodgers have shown up in the fantasy stat sheet all year. His best fantasy performance this season was back in Week 5 when he scored 28.7 fantasy points against a weak Detroit Lions defense. Since their bye week he's scored more than 20 fantasy points just once. But this week that early-round quarterback draft pick you made back in August is going to pay off. Aaron Rodgers is going to have his best fantasy performance of the season, just in time for the first round of the playoffs.

This prediction has less to do with Mike McCarthy's firing than it does the Atlanta Falcons' defense. The Falcons have been decimated by injuries all year, which has in turn led to the team having numberFire's league-worst defense. They have been giving up an average of 22.9 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the second-highest average in the league. They're the only team Alex Smith threw for over 300 yards against all year.

Rodgers is going to feast in this juicy matchup. Despite the Falcons' meltdown in Week 13, they've been a potent offense the rest of the year. They should be able to keep pace with the Packers and keep the pressure on Rodgers. That will help drive up the score, which should greatly benefit Rodgers' fantasy outlook -- only the Minnesota Vikings have a higher pass-to-run ratio in the red zone this year. When the Packers get down near the end zone -- which they'll be doing often this week -- Rodgers will be the one adding six to the scoreboard.

Fade the coach-firing narrative this week. Rodgers is going to have his best fantasy game of the season because the Falcons won't be able to stop him.