Fantasy Football: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 11
The Texans Will be the Top D/ST
We've seen this story before. Week 13, last year. Washington traveled to the home of their struggling division rivals, the Cowboys, without an offensive line. The then-struggling Dallas defense walloped Kirk Cousins, trouncing the second- and third-string linemen on almost every down. The Cowboys D/ST went on to score 21 fantasy points in that game and were one of the top-scoring defenses that week.
The Houston D/ST will have that same pleasure this week. Washington is once again down virtually their entire starting offensive line; they have a combined eight linemen on the injured reserve or questionable heading into their Week 11 matchup. This has allowed their recent opponents to well out-perform their average production over the last few weeks. In their last three games, Washington has played the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Atlanta Falcons and the New York Giants -- not exactly terrifying defenses. They allowed those defenses to score three fantasy points over their season averages, even ceding six and five points to the Bucs and the Falcons, respectively. Two of the very worst defenses in football sacked Alex Smith three times apiece.
And unlike the 2017 Cowboys, the Texans defense has been tearing it up this year. J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney have been ruthless this season. While the team is just average at producing sacks on the season, Watt and Clowney are each top-16 in quarterback hits. They've been elite at getting to the quarterback, and this week they're going to convert those hits into sack production.
They haven't just been elite at getting to the quarterback, either. They're actually even better at producing tackles for losses -- both are in the top 10 in this statistic. So even on rushing plays they've been unstoppable, which has helped the Texans become the best defense against the run (they're allowing just 3.6 yards per rush this season). Their dominance up front is a big reason the team's opponents are averaging just 5.2 yards per play, the fifth-lowest per play average in the league.
They're not going to be afraid of Alex Smith, who has thrown for more than 180 yards just once in the last five weeks, and there's no way an aging Adrian Peterson is going to be able to get anything going on the ground with that offensive line in shambles. Houston is going to shut Washington down this week and finish with the top-scoring D/ST in fantasy.
