Fantasy Football: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 11

Dak Prescott Will Finish as a Top-3 Quarterback

It wasn't so long ago that Dak Prescott was one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy football. Through Week 8 in 2017, Dak was actually the overall QB1 in fantasy points -- before everything went south. He hasn't quite lived up to those early expectations since, but I think things are turning around for the third-year quarterback.

The biggest reason for this is the Dallas Cowboys' acquisition of one Amari Cooper. He's only played in two games with the team since the trade went down, so we are dealing with some small sample sizes (even for football). But in those two games, Dak's numbers have spiked. Before the trade, Dak was averaging -0.06 passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per game. In other words, his passes were actually removing points from the Cowboys' expected points total. You can read all about NEP in our terms glossary, but you can probably still understand that negative NEP is bad.

Since the trade, Dak is up to 4.15 passing NEP per game -- a substantial improvement. His completion percentage and Passing Success Rate (the percentage of positive NEP passes) have enjoyed similar improvements as well.

Cooper himself is a definite upgrade to the team's receiver room. With just three weeks to get used to the Cowboys' playbook, Cooper is already leading the squad in receiving NEP per target. In his first two games, he's recorded 7.40 and 7.01 receiving NEP, meaning his receptions have added more than a touchdown's in each game.

So Dak is on the upswing and Cooper is helping out, but what will really boost Dak's fantasy performance this week is the matchup. The Cowboys draw the Atlanta Falcons' defense, which has seriously struggled this year. They've allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks on the season, and lately have been doing even worse.

Over the last three weeks, Baker Mayfield and Eli Manning each set season-highs in fantasy points against the Falcons, while Alex Smith scored his third-highest mark of the year. When Manning scores 20.7 fantasy points against your defense you know you have a problem.

Dak Prescott is primed to shred this Falcons defense to pieces through the air and even gets added value from his legs in the rushing game. He will finish as a top-three fantasy quarterback in Week 11.