5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 3
New Orleans Saints' Rushing Offense
It doesn't get more "don't overthink it" than using Alvin Kamara against the Atlanta Falcons.
By this point, you've likely heard that the Falcons' defense is known for funneling targets to the running-back position. They've allowed the most receptions to running backs each of the past three seasons, so this isn't some new-fangled philosophy. It's just how they roll.
That got a bit more complicated in Week 1. In the opener, the Falcons lost both Keanu Neal and Deion Jones to injured reserve, two of the players who helped clean the streets after the running backs made their receptions. Losing them will make this way of life a wee bit more difficult.
As fate would have it, the Falcons' first game without those two studs happened to be against Christian McCaffrey, and the Carolina Panthers took full advantage. McCaffrey turned 15 targets and 8 carries into 139 yards from scrimmage, finishing with 20.9 FanDuel points despite not finding the end zone.
McCaffrey accomplished that even though his team was missing three of its starting offensive linemen. Kamara and the New Orleans Saints have no such restrictions. This is a spot where Kamara could go nuclear.
Through the first two games this year, Kamara has 18 targets, accounting for 22.8% of the team's total throws. Five of those have come in the red zone, which amounts to 29.4% there. And this is just his volume in the passing game.
On the ground, Kamara has struggled to get going this year, netting just 75 yards on 21 carries. There are a couple of reasons that this shouldn't worry us.
First, you're not using Kamara because he's a highly-efficient back (even though that was the case last year). You're using him because he'll get loads of volume with Mark Ingram out, and said volume carries more juice when it comes via the passing game and the right arm of Drew Brees.
Second, it's not as if Kamara had cake matchups to start things off. The Cleveland Browns were eighth against the rush last year, according to numberFire's analytics, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers made major changes to their defensive front in the offseason. Now, Kamara gets to face a battered defense that was already poor against the rush last year, finishing 22nd in the league.
Not surprisingly, those struggles have carried over into the early portion of 2018, as well. Opposing running backs have added 0.12 expected points per carry, according to numberFire's Brandon Gdula, while adding expected points 43.2% of the time. Those two numbers rank 29th and 22nd in the league, respectively.
We should expect some increased efficiency for Kamara in this game, only amplifying what is an already-peachy spot. Kamara's certainly spendy at $8,700, and there will be tons of value at running back this weekend, but it will be hard to duplicate the ceiling this guy brings to the table.
