5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 3
Philadelphia Eagles' Passing Offense
A contender for the MVP award in 2017 is set to make his season debut at home in a plus matchup at a reduced price tag. It shouldn't get much easier than that. We've got to roll out Carson Wentz and friends against the Indianapolis Colts.
Some degree of hesitancy makes sense here with Wentz playing his first game since tearing his ACL last year. But Wentz is the team's franchise quarterback, and they were willing to hold him out the first two weeks in order to get him healthy. This isn't a situation where they're going to trot him out there and risk his (and their) long-term outlook.
Those concerns are partially baked into Wentz's price, too. He's just $7,400 on FanDuel, and with all the high-priced options at quarterback, that palatable salary is a welcomed sight. Getting him in a matchup with the Colts just makes this a no-brainer.
Although the Colts have looked good defensively through two games, they're coming off of a season in which they finished dead last in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. They could be wildly improved and still be a matchup we'd want to target. If the Colts were to continue this success further into the season, then we could start to back off of opposing offenses. For now, though, this one should still get us all hot and bothered.
Putting them up against a quarterback as good as Wentz makes it even easier to swallow a potential middling matchup. Given that Nick Foles led the Eagles to a Super Bowl, it's easy to forget just how good Wentz was last year. Let's give a quick reminder.
The numbers below compare Foles and Wentz overall the past two seasons, including Foles' red-hot postseason run and his numbers this year. "Passing NEP/P" stands for Passing NEP per drop back, which, again, tracks the expected points added on a per-drop back basis while deducting the expected points lost on interceptions, incompletions, and sacks.
| Past 2 Seasons | Attempts | Yards Per Attempt | Passing NEP/P | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 440 | 7.49 | 0.27 | 50.7% |
| Nick Foles | 289 | 6.78 | 0.16 | 49.1% |
The overall numbers make it pretty clear that this is a boon for the Eagles' pass catchers. But things look even better when we zero in on the deep balls.
Nelson Agholor quickly became a punchline in Week 1 after his 10 targets resulted in just 33 yards. He rebounded in a big way last Sunday, and those gains should continue with Wentz leading the offense. "Deep Rate" is the percentage of throws that travel at least 16 yards downfield.
| On Deep Passes | Deep Rate | TDs | INTs | Passing NEP/P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 22.5% | 12 | 4 | 0.63 |
| Nick Foles | 17.7% | 4 | 3 | 0.09 |
Wentz's 22.50% deep rate last year ranked 5th among quarterbacks with at least 200 total attempts. He paired that with efficiency, ranking seventh in expected points added per attempt on deep balls. The league-average Passing NEP per attempt on deep passes was 0.42, meaning Foles was a detriment when he had to put some air under the ball.
We should not expect Wentz to duplicate that efficiency out of the gate in 2018. Alshon Jeffery is still sidelined with a shoulder injury, Torrey Smith is now with the Carolina Panthers, and Mike Wallace is on injured reserve. Wentz should take a step back in this department as a result. That does not change the fact that he will be a significant upgrade from what Foles brought to the table.
Wentz is good enough (and cheap enough) to justify using despite the legitimate concerns. If you want to stay away, that's a defensible stance. But it's hard to come up with good reasons not to use Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz.
Through two games, both of these players are getting more than 27.0% of the team's targets (29.1% for Ertz and 27.9% for Agholor). They've also both gotten three of nine red-zone targets. You know exactly where the ball is going in this offense, and that makes a difference.
They also might have a bit more juice than they've had recently down the field. Not only is Wentz more willing to chuck a bomb than Foles, but Wallace had 3 of the team's 14 deep targets prior to his injury. Agholor was tied with him for the team lead, and Ertz had one fewer. Those deep target shares figure to go up with Wallace out, giving both players a desirable blend of floor and upside.
Agholor is $6,600 with Ertz at $7,000 on FanDuel. You can easily make a case for either guy as a cash-game asset, and given the matchup, they're in play for tournaments here, as well. It would be wise to get exposure to both just in case Wentz comes out and reminds us how good he was last year.
