NFL

5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 3

Use your ← → (arrow) keys to browse the slideshow

San Francisco 49ers' Passing Offense

We're two weeks into the season, and the panic button has been engaged for the San Francisco 49ers' $137.5 million man at quarterback. The 49ers are 1-1 after a tight win last week, and Jimmy Garoppolo has looked like a shell of his 2017 self.

But is this panic justified? Or are we just overthinking what should be a fairly straightforward situation?

For several reasons, we shouldn't be bailing on Jimmy G. just yet, especially not with the delectable matchup he has coming down the pipe on Sunday.

The 49ers had the ever-enviable task of opening their 2018 campaign on the road against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings finished 2017 ranked second in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, numberFire's schedule-adjusted metric to track a team's abilities against the pass. That was before they added Sheldon Richardson in free agency and took corner Mike Hughes in the first round of the draft.

To further complicate matters, the 49ers lost wide receiver Marquise Goodwin and both their first- and second-string right guards during the game. Good luck stopping the Vikings' front in that scenario.

Goodwin sat out in Week 2, and the offensive-line woes continued. Garoppolo took six sacks against the Detroit Lions, putting them up to nine sacks allowed through two games. If you're looking for a cause for concern, you could find it here.

But that may not matter this week. The 49ers are facing the Kansas City Chiefs, and through two games, the Chiefs have just 2 sacks in 113 drop backs. Even if the 49ers do have a problem up front, the Chiefs aren't likely to expose it.

With Goodwin getting in a limited practice Wednesday, Garoppolo may have his top weapon back in the fold, as well. Against this Chiefs secondary, that could lead to a big-time rebound for the 49ers' franchise centerpiece.

Through two games, the Chiefs' defense has allowed 876 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 1 interception through the air. This has pushed them down to 29th against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics. Teams have to throw to keep pace with all the nastiness Patrick Mahomes is slinging around the field, and they're doing so with efficiency.

You could contend that Garoppolo is not on the same level as the two quarterbacks the Chiefs have faced this year in Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. That's very likely true given how good those two are and how long they've been around.

With that being said, it's important not to sell what Garoppolo did last year short. He finished with 0.35 Passing NEP per drop back, meaning he added an average of 0.35 expected points on each drop back, deducting for expected points lost due to sacks, interceptions, and incompletions. No other quarterback was higher than 0.28 in this metric. Garoppolo's 56.5% Success Rate (the percentage of drop backs that increased the team's expected points for the drive) was the best in the league by almost five percentage points.

Should we completely toss that out the window after a pair of rough games, one of which was against arguably the league's best defense? I wouldn't. Garoppolo's firmly in play at $7,400 on FanDuel.

The bigger dilemma is with whom we should pair Garoppolo in stacks. There's no easy answer. The two best candidates, though, do seem to be George Kittle and Goodwin, assuming Goodwin's able to get back on the field.

Kittle enters Week 3 leading the team with a 22.8% target market share. His usage was monstrous in Week 1 with nine total targets with two being deep targets (at least 16 yards downfield) and two in the red zone. The 49ers played a bit of keepaway last week, which may have led to a disappointing day. But with Kittle still priced at $5,800, he makes for a cheap way to get exposure to this matchup.

The same could be true with Goodwin, who is also $5,800. It's hard to trust someone coming off an injury, but his usage last year with Garoppolo was superb.

Garoppolo took over as the full-time starter in Week 13, giving the pair five games of sample together. Goodwin was getting a ton of high-leverage looks.

Week 13 OnTarget Market ShareDeep Target ShareRed-Zone Target Share
Marquise Goodwin24.7%47.1%11.6%


Goodwin has been limited to just 17 snaps this year, so Garoppolo's struggles make sense. But with Goodwin seemingly trending up, it's time to get back on the Jimmy G. bandwagon in a dreamy matchup.