10 Fantasy Football Bust Candidates for 2018

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Average Draft Position: 5.03, WR23, 52nd Overall

It's vital to remember that these players aren't meant to be considered unusable in fantasy football. Just that they may be disappointments.

Alshon Jeffery actually should have a pretty high floor, given his role in a strong offense. However, Jeffery's 9 touchdowns on just 789 yards and 81.06 Reception NEP suggest that negative touchdown regression is coming his way. Jeffery "should have" scored closer to 3.06 touchdowns than the 9 he actually mustered, based on his NEP input.

Had he scored just three times, he'd have dropped from WR25 to WR40 on a per-game basis in PPR leagues.

Jeffery played all 16 games last year but had only four with more than four catches: five, five, six, and seven. He hasn't surpassed 100 receiving yards in a game since Week 1 of the 2016 season.

After the Philadelphia Eagles' Week 10 bye, Jeffery had a 17% target market share (third on the team) and narrowly held the lead in air yards market share (27%; Nelson Agholor was at 26%).

None of this is to question Jeffery's talent. Rather, it's just that the Eagles' offense may not allow for a WR2-type season for Jeffery unless he commands an elite touchdown rate again. History suggests he won't.